Competing claims on Ghana in a modern day gold rush

For many months Ghana's goldfields, the west African nation's most prized asset, have looked like being the next investment-starved mining operation to

be swallowed up by AngloGold, the world's second largest producer of the precious metal.

All that has changed in recent days, however, with a possible rival offer from a company some 12 times smaller than AngloGold with little or no experience of running mines.

Randgold Resources, the London-listed South African mineral exploration firm, is painting a picture of a reverse takeover deal which it claims would transform Ashanti Goldfields into an "independent, pan-African player".

Randgold chief executive Mark Bristow said the envisaged merger would lead to a company with its headquarters in the Ghanaian capital, Accra, and with 70% of the ownership retained by existing Ashanti shareholders.

Such an enlarged company would also retain the Ashanti name, which recalls the centuries-old west African kingdom that was built on the trade in gold dust. The country, the most powerful in the region, had resisted the British empire for most of the 19th century, finally falling to the colonial power in 1896.

It is no secret that the Ghanaian government under president John Kufuor is keen to retain the ties between the country and Ashanti through both management involvement and a significant stake in the business. Ashanti is by far the country's biggest earner of foreign currency, and its performance dominates the national economy.

If AngloGold took Ashanti, the government's 16.5% stake would become a relatively inconsequential 2% holding in the world's second largest gold producer.

By contrast, a combination with Randgold would give the Ghanaian company a presence in one of the world's largest capital markets, quite possibly with ranking in the FTSE 250. And if such a merger led to Ashanti chief executive Sam Jonah taking the top job, he would shoot to prominence in the UK as the FTSE 250's only black chief executive.

However, Randgold's planned reverse takeover of Ashanti remains the laughing stock of the financial communities in London and Johannesburg.

Some analysts have described the deal as "a joke", others call it "pie in the sky". They say two Randgold shares for every Ashanti share may indicate a premium of more than 30% to AngloGold's agreed offer, but such a paper premium is almost meaningless.

"We would clearly hope that the Ghanaian government and other Ashanti shareholders would not be so naive as to expect to retain the premium after the deal," said Gary Pearson, an analyst at Nedcor Securities.

"In fact, this 'premium' could well turn into a discount."

Other mining analysts point out that the rationale for Ashanti talking to prospective suitors in the first place was to attract the financial resources necessary to exploit Ghana's deep gold resources hundreds of metres beneath the ground at Obuasi.

Extraction at such levels is specialist work and is estimated to need investment of about $500m - requirements AngloGold suggests it is far better placed to meet than Randgold.

Another apparently insurmountable obstacle in the way of a Randgold deal is Lonmin. The London-listed platinum company that was spun out of the late Tiny Rowland's business empire is Ashanti's biggest shareholder. It has a 28% stake and two non-executive representatives on the board, and declared some time ago it was seeking to sell its investment.

An AngloGold deal would leave Lonmin with an easily disposable 3.5% stake in a liquid South African stock.

By contrast, holding 19% of paper following a Randgold deal would present Lonmin with slim chances of making an exit.

While Lonmin has studiously declined to pre-empt an official response to the bidding war from Ashanti, it is clear that a conflict is brewing behind the scenes between the British investor and the Ghanaian government.