Dollar index decreases by 1.6% in July - OPEC

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has said the U.S. dollar index decreased by 1.6 per cent month-on-month (m-o-m) in July, erasing gains from the previous period.

The dollar index rose for the second consecutive month in June, increasing marginally by 0.3 per cent m-o-m.

OPEC said this in its Monthly Oil Market Report for August.

The report, while stating the impact of the dollar and inflation on oil prices, said the dollar receded, although the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 25 basis points (bp) in July.

This, it said, underscored a shift in risk sentiment as investors’ global macroeconomic outlook improved, and financial markets wagered that the U.S. economy would avoid recession.

According to the OPEC report, Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y), the index was down by 5.2 per cent.

The OPEC report said the dollar experienced mixed movement against major developed market currencies for a second consecutive month in July.

It said it recovered against the euro by 2.2 per cent m-o-m, but receded against the yen and the pound by 0.2 per cent and 2.2 per cent, respectively, over the same period.

It said Y-o-Y, the dollar was up by 8.9 per cent and 3.0 per cent against the euro and yen, respectively; however, it was down by 7.1 per cent against the pound over the same period.

“In terms of emerging market currencies, the dollar declined for a second consecutive month in July against the rupee and the Brazilian real by 0.1 per cent and 1.1 per cent respectively, m-o-m.

“Meanwhile, it advanced against the Yuan for a second consecutive month by 0.3 per cent m-o-m,” the oil market report said.

It said Y-o-Y, the dollar was up by 3.2 per cent and 6.7 per cent against the rupee and yuan, respectively; however, it was down by 10.6 per cent against the real over the same period.

It said the differential between nominal and real OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) prices widened m-o-m.

It said inflation (nominal price minus real price) went from negative 1.78 dollars per barrel in June to negative 3.11 dollars per barrel in July, a 76.7 per cent increase m-o-m.

It further stated that in nominal terms, accounting for inflation, the ORB price went from 75.19 per cent per barrel in June to 81.06 per barrel in July, a 7.8 per cent increase m-o-m.

It added that Y-o-Y, the ORB was down by 25.3 per cent in nominal terms.

In real terms (excluding inflation), it said the ORB went from 76.95 dollars per barrel in June to 84.17 dollars per barrel in July, a 9.4 per cent increase m-o-m.

“Y-o-y, the ORB was down by 24.4 per cent in real terms,” it said.