Ghana Stock Exchange tops Africa, rally set to continue in 2025

The Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) emerged as Africa’s best-performing market in 2024, recording a 56.17 percent gain during the period as a slow debt market pointed investors in the direction of equities.

The exchange’s composite index rose from 3,130.23 to 4,888.53, marking its strongest performance in 10 years – since 2013’s 78.8 percent return.

The GSE’s rally is projected to continue in 2025, supported by favourable market conditions, robust corporate earnings and improving investor sentiment toward the equity market.

Analysts anticipate that the Composite Index (GSE-CI), which tracks the performance of the main market, will surpass the 5,000-point mark in this year – extending its remarkable performance from 2024.

John Nani, an analyst at Fincap Securities, highlighted growing confidence in the equities market as a key driver for sustained growth.

“The equity market’s broad-based performance is expected to persist, with MTN Ghana continuing to play a leading role due to its consistent dividend payouts, rising revenues and growing profitability,” he said in an interview with B&FT.

Ghana’s market rally occurred against a backdrop of limited domestic investment alternatives. The Treasury bill market experienced significant undersubscription, with a GH¢20billion shortfall in the third quarter alone.

This scarcity of traditional fixed-income options, combined with the cedi’s 19 percent depreciation against the US dollar, redirected investor attention to equities.

The exchange’s Financial Index gained 25.2 percent, recovering from a 7.36 percent decline in 2023.

This rebound followed a challenging period after the restructuring of domestic cedi bonds, cocoa bills and domestic dollar bonds had impacted bank balance sheets and dampened investor sentiment.

Superior returns over treasury bills

The equity market significantly outperformed Treasury bill returns in 2024, as 91-day T-bills stood at 28.24 percent. Similarly, the 182-day and 364-day bills stood at 28.68 percent and 30.07 percent respectively. This reinforced the market’s attractiveness as an investment option.

Analysts observed that this trend is likely to continue in 2025, with the broader market expected to deliver stronger returns compared to short-term debt instruments.

Databank Research forecasted that the GSE-CI could climb to 6,850 points by year-end, representing a projected annual gain of 45 percent (±500 basis points).

Other African markets

Other African markets also posted strong performances, with many recordings double-digit gains.

The Malawi Stock Exchange followed Ghana closely with a 55.06 percent gain, continuing its upward trajectory from 2023 when it returned 78.85 percent. Zambia’s Lusaka Securities Exchange ranked third with a 42.60 percent increase, as its All-Share Index moved from 10,828.18 to 15,440.9.

The Nigerian Exchange maintained its positive momentum for a fifth consecutive year, advancing 37.65 percent. The market’s capitalisation increased by N21.8 trillion, closing at N62.763 trillion – with oil and gas stocks leading the gains.

The Uganda Securities Exchange recorded a 36.94 percent appreciation, with its All-Share Index rising from 872.5 to 1194.8. Notable listings included Airtel Uganda, British American Tobacco and Stanbic Bank Uganda.

Kenya’s market demonstrated a remarkable recovery, posting a 34.06 percent gain in local currency and leading the continent in USD terms with a 65.3 percent return. This performance marked a significant turnaround from 2023, when currency depreciation had made it the world’s worst-performing market in dollar terms.

The BRVM, serving Francophone West Africa, returned 29.7 percent as its composite index moved from 212.82 to 276.02. In USD terms, the market achieved a 34.9 percent return – second only to Kenya among African exchanges.

Morocco’s Casablanca Stock Exchange advanced 22.16 percent, with its All-Share Index rising from 12,092.88 to 14,773.19. Construction firm Jet Contractors, Residences Dar Saada and Alliances were among the market’s top performers.

The Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange in Tanzania gained 20.85 percent, with its All-Share Index closing at 2,139.73. Major listings included East African Breweries, KCB Group, Tanzania Breweries, Vodacom Tanzania and Tanzania Cigarette.

Egypt’s exchange rounded out the top performers with a 19.47 percent increase in its EGX-30 index. The broader EGX100 EWI gained 42.40 percent, while market capitalisation increased by US$8.85billion despite the Egyptian pound’s depreciation.

These performances exceeded the MSCI Frontier Emerging Markets Index’s 7.43 percent gain. The index tracks several African markets including Ivory Coast, Morocco, Egypt, Mauritius, Kenya and Tunisia.

Market movers on GSE

MTN Ghana’s dominance on the stock exchange remains unmatched. In 2024, the telecom giant accounted for approximately 93% of total trading volumes and 71% of total value traded.

“MTN’s appeal to investors is its strong fundamentals and consistent dividend policies continue to make it a preferred choice,” Mr. Nani said.

The newly-elected administration’s economic policies are expected to play a pivotal role in shaping the investment landscape in 2025. Analysts predict that favourable policies could further boost investor confidence and attract fresh capital into the market.

“Investor sentiment will largely be influenced by government’s policy direction, particularly in areas such as taxation, infrastructure development and fiscal discipline,” Mr. Nani explained.

2024 performance

In 2024, the GSE-CI recorded a stellar 56.17% year-to-date (YTD) return, marking the highest in five years and more than doubling its five-year average of 20.31%.

The index closed at 4,888.53 points, driven by strong demand for shares across sectors such as agriculture, ICT, finance and distribution. Notably, the secondary listing of Atlantic Lithium Ltd. expanded the market basket…further boosting activity.

The GSE witnessed a surge in trading activity during 2024 with 992 million shares traded, representing a 71 percent year-on-year increase. Turnover also rose sharply to GH¢2.15billion, up by 163 percent compared to the previous year.

This growth in market activity underscores the increasing appeal of equities among investors seeking higher returns.

The top-five gainers of 2024 included Unilever which posted an impressive 140.44 percent YTD gain and Ecobank Transnational Inc. rose by 106.67 percent.

MTN Ghana also featured prominently with a 78.57 percent increase in its share price, closing the year at GH¢2.50. On the other hand, CalBank led the list of losers with its share price declining by 27.08 percent.

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