By Richard Valdmanis
DAKAR (Reuters) - Ghana, one of West Africa's most attractive investment destinations, risks scaring off foreign money if its government fails to quickly clear up confusion over two major deals involving international firms.
The government of John Atta Mills, who came to power in January after a knife's edge election, is in the process of reviewing a multi-billion dollar deal by Exxon Mobil to get into Ghana's offshore oil sector.
And on Friday Accra announced that it was also considering a thorough renegotiation of British cell phone company Vodafone's
$900 million purchase of a stake in Ghana Telecom in August 2008 after an intergovernmental commission said it appeared unconstitutional and unfair.
"Both of these stories are sending very bad signals to the international investment community," said Sebastian Spio-Garbrah, risk analyst at Eurasia Group in New York.
"Both cases do appear to warrant some government investigation, but in the meantime, the signal is a negative one."
The outlook could be dangerous for a nation that will need to rely on foreign money and expertise to build up a fledgling oil industry and make a push to move from second to first place among world cocoa producers, analysts said.
Ghana, which has emerged as one of the most stable democracies in a region scarred by civil wars and political turmoil, is seeking to boost cocoa output as No. 1 grower Ivory Coast falls into decline.
The country, which has seen foreign direct investment surge in recent years to near $1 billion per year according to the World Bank, also aims to start producing oil from its huge offshore reserves in 2010 in the hope of filling government coffers and reducing unemployment that stands near 20 percent.
Current oil production is trickling out at 6,000 barrels per day -- a fraction of the output of regional heavyweights like Nigeria and Angola, which can pump around 2 million bpd.
Earlier this month, however, Ghana sent shock waves through the oil industry by calling Exxon Mobil's reported multi-billion dollar deal to buy a stake in the Jubilee field from private equity-backed Kosmos Energy illegal.
The state oil company, Ghana National Petroleum Corp, has said that it is interested in purchasing the stake and has the money to do it -- threatening to overthrow Exxon's bid.
ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY
On Friday, Ghana added to the uncertainty by announcing it was mulling a recommendation to review Vodafone's hotly debated purchase of Ghana Telecom on the grounds that it was not the highest bid.
Mills, who ran the opposition during the deal before taking power, had argued the deal was not transparent.
"This represents that the government might be backtracking on some of its previous commitments," said Markus Schneider, analyst at UBA Capital in London.
"The new government is trying to assert itself and prove that it is not weak, but at the same time it does not want to destroy its future relationships with investors, particularly as it relates to its oil industry," he said.
"They want to make sure they get the best deals going forward, but without scaring people off," he said.
Analysts added that, while the Mills government may have good reason to look into the two deals to address any alleged corruption and ensure national interests, it needs to speak with one voice and move quickly in order to avoid being seen as an unattractive risk to foreign money.
Among the foreign companies operating in Ghana are U.S. food giant Cargill, UK oil company Tullow Oil, French chemicals maker Air Liquide, and mining concern Gold Fields Ltd.
Eurasia Group's Spio-Garbrah said the government's handling of the Exxon-Kosmos case so far has been dogged by confusion, with public comments from the state oil company not necessarily reflecting the government view.
In the Vodafone case, experts said it did not appear the government was communicating effectively with the company to solve the issues. A Vodafone official said the firm had not received any notification of the findings of the commission criticising the deal.
"The goverment needs to track carefully on the right course or risk damaging future investment," said a London-based analyst who asked not to be named.
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