IEA: Global oil demand revised upwards for 2012

Global oil demand estimates for 2012 were revised upward to 89.8 million b/d based on stronger than expected fourth-quarter data, according to the International Energy Agency's latest monthly Oil Market Report.

This adjustment was underpinned by an uptick in oil demand seen in China, the US, and Brazil in last year's final quarter, IEA said. Worldwide demand for oil is forecast to be 90.8 million b/d in 2013, a 1% increase over 2012.


In December, global supplies fell by 170,000 b/d to 91.2 million b/d, with oil production from member countries in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries down to the lowest level in a year.


However, the annual oil output of OPEC in 2012 has reached the highest level ever in the wake of continued global demand growth and despite exceptional increases in North American supplies. Non-OPEC supplies are estimated at 54.1 million b/d in the fourth quarter, 870,000 b/d higher than the previous year.


Commercial oil inventories in (OECD) Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries fell by 18.8 million bbl to 2,693 million bbl in November.

The deficit in the OECD Europe inventories widened to 56.4 million bbl despite the above 5-year average stocks in OECD Americas and OECD Asia Oceania.


In December, the West Texas Intermediate price rose by $1.50/bbl to average $88.25/bbl while Brent fell about 35¢/bbl to average $109.20/bbl. Prices by mid-January were above December levels, with Brent at $110.75/bbl and WTI at $95.15/bbl.


Global refinery runs in the fourth quarter rose by 1.5 million b/d year on year to about 75.9 million b/d, lifted by the growth in China, India, and the US.