Oil dips as markets price in rate cut expectation

Oil dipped in the global commodity market on Friday as market price in the US Fed rate cut expectations, and the latest round of negotiations for a ceasefire between Israeli and Hamas was held in Egypt.

The international benchmark Brent crude traded at $77.94 per barrel on Friday, down by around 2.2% relative to the closing price of $79.68 a barrel on Friday last week.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the American benchmark, traded at $73.83 a barrel at the same time on Friday, a decrease of about 3.7% from last Friday’s session, which closed at $76.65 per barrel.

Oil prices staged a recovery yesterday in the global commodities market, halting fourth day losing streaks. ICE Brent rallied 1.54%, and settled back above US$77 per barrel.

This breaks a four-day streak of declines, which had pushed the market towards oversold territory, ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a note.

Analysts also said OPEC+ will still be concerned about the recent weakness in the market, and as we previously mentioned, it is increasingly likely that the group will have to ditch plans to start increasing supply from October.

However, this will depend on where the market is trading towards the end of September.

Trading data showed that oil prices are set for a weekly drop amid weaker than expected economic indicators in the US and China, the world’s largest crude consumers. Lower economic growth expectations for China and the US triggered worry over a drop in oil demand in the countries.

Data from China last week showed that new home prices fell at the fastest rate in nine years, industrial production slowed, and the economy lost momentum in July as unemployment rose.

According to the data, industrial production remained below expectations with an annual increase of 5.1% and the unemployment rate was above expectations with 5.2%.

Weak labor force data from the US revealed concerns over economic growth. The US Department of Labor revised non-farm employment data for the 12-month period through March 2024. With the revision, employment in the US increased by 818,000.

While the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the US increased to 232,000 in the week ending August 17, the number of ongoing applications for unemployment benefits increased by 4,000 people in the week ending Aug. 10, reaching 1.86 million.

Meanwhile, for months, the US, Qatar, and Egypt have been working towards an agreement between Israel and Hamas to ensure a prisoner exchange and cease-fire and allow humanitarian aid to enter Gaza.

The possibility of a cease-fire in the Middle East, where the majority of global oil reserves are located, eased supply concerns in the markets and aided the fall in oil prices.

The latest round of mediated negotiations ended on August 16 in Doha, Qatar, with the US presenting the parties with what the White House described as a ‘final bridging proposal’ that it put on the table for Israel and Hamas.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Israel on August 18 to advance efforts to reach a Gaza cease-fire and prisoner swap deal with Hamas. On August 19, Blinken said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had accepted a new ‘bridging proposal’ for a Gaza cease-fire and prisoner swap deal.

Officials gathered in the Egyptian capital Cairo for a fresh round of negotiations on August 22. Today’s negotiations between Egyptian and Israeli delegations in Cairo seeking a Gaza cease-fire and a prisoner exchange deal with Hamas failed to progress, reported Israeli media on Friday.

Oil prices picked up some steam in later trading on Friday, due to some market players taking advantage of the low prices by short-term buying.