Post-programme period will test economic gains - IMF

Director-IMF African Department Abebe Aemro Selassie believes sustaining fiscal discipline after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme ends will be critical to preserving gains from recent macroeconomic stabilisation efforts.

Speaking during the IMF April 2026 Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa’s release, Selassie said recovery reflects consistent efforts to strengthen revenue mobilisation, address structural weaknesses in state-owned enterprises and stabilise the energy sector.

Recent data indicate a marked turnaround in fiscal performance. The country’s primary balance shifted from a deficit of 2.9 percent of GDP in 2024 to a surplus of 2.6 percent in 2025 while the debt-to-GDP ratio declined to 45.3 percent from 61.8 percent, significantly outperforming earlier targets.

Similarly, international reserves have also strengthened – covering 5.8 months of imports – reflecting improved external stability and policy credibility. The broader macroeconomic environment has also improved. Growth rose to about 6 percent in 2025, supported by easing monetary conditions and improving investor confidence.

Inflation declined sharply from 23.8 percent in 2024 to 5.8 percent in 2025 and further to 3.2 percent by March 2026. Also, the cedi appreciated by more than 40 percent against the US dollar in 2025.

Selassie attributed these gains to a combination of fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, noting that the programme has helped anchor policy credibility. But he cautioned that the post-programme period will test the country’s ability to maintain discipline without external oversight.

“Going forward, it is really about how to make sure that the fiscal balance remains contained and there is a continued balance between addressing development needs and avoiding sustainability challenges.”

Selassie noted that reducing tax expenditures, including exemptions and preferential rates – estimated at about three percent of GDP in the region – remains a key reform area. He added that rebuilding fiscal buffers over the medium-term will be essential, particularly as external risks intensify.

Regional outlook has become more complex following escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which has led to higher energy and transportation costs.

Despite these risks, Ghana is seen as one of the stronger-performing economies in the region, supported by reforms and improved buffers.