Power generation shortfalls impact domestic supply and exports – IES

Power generation has consistently fallen short of meeting peak demand, impacting domestic energy reliability and reducing the country’s ability to meet export commitments, according to a recent analysis by the Institute for Energy Security (IES).

The report, which examined Ghana’s power generation data from September 1 to October 27, 2024, highlights an average daily shortfall of 700 megawatts (MW) – sometimes reaching up to 1,000MW and forcing the country to rely on imports to meet its energy needs.

The report reveals that Ghana’s power generation averages around 3,000MW daily, while peak demand hovers at approximately 3,700MW.

“The consistent inability to meet peak demand not only affects reliability of local supply but also limits our ability to maintain stable export volumes,” IES stated.

Neighbouring countries such as Togo, Burkina Faso and Benin rely on Ghana’s electricity exports, yet the shortfall in meeting local demand often forces the country to curtail these exports – impacting trade relations and revenue.

Ghana’s daily power generation fluctuates between 2,700MW and 3,200MW, which according to IES is insufficient to meet both domestic and export demands. While these variations prevent extreme volatility, they also indicate limited flexibility in the system; preventing Ghana from fully utilising its dependable capacity, which is estimated at around 5,000MW.

IES attributes these limitations to forced plant shutdowns, resource constraints and debt challenges.

“Ghana’s power infrastructure has potential to bridge the demand gap, but persistent issues restrict full utilisation,” the report noted, adding that on October 7, 2024, power generation nearly met peak demand – an isolated instance that underscores limitations in the system’s ability to sustain increases.

“The data suggest that the generation system lacks the adaptability needed for effectively responding to peak demand variations; a situation that exacerbates Ghana’s reliance on imported power,” IES said.

Declining Export Volumes

The shortfall also restricts Ghana’s role as a reliable energy exporter. Export volumes fluctuate between 100 MW and 400 MW, with reductions typically made to prioritise Ghana’s domestic electricity needs.

IES warned that the decline in export volumes could impact Ghana’s regional trade relationships, as the neighbouring countries’ energy-planning and security depend on Ghana’s consistent exports.

“While Ghana has consistently maintained some level of exports, the shortfalls in meeting domestic demand forces us to prioritise local consumption,” IES noted.

These reductions in exports, especially during peak demand periods, risk straining bilateral trade agreements with neighbouring countries.

Increased Reliance on Imports

To offset the domestic shortfalls, Ghana imported 1,605MW of power from La Cote d’Ivoire between September 12 and October 7, 2024. During this period, Ghana reduced exports to Togo, Benin and Burkina Faso to manage its supply constraints. IES highlighted that while imports help meet immediate demand, this approach is unsustainable.

“The reliance on imports to offset domestic shortfalls is a signal that Ghana’s generation system is stretched thin, and this is not a sustainable solution for meeting long-term needs,” the report noted.

IES recommends strategic investments to expand Ghana’s generation capacity and optimise the use of existing dependable capacity to reduce strain on the generation system. The organisation also advocates demand management policies to help balance consumption with available resources.

“To bridge the gap between generation and demand, Ghana may need to consider investments in new facilities, as well as upgrades to existing infrastructure to maximise output,” IES advised.

Additionally, IES emphasised the importance of operational flexibility, suggesting that demand-response initiatives could dynamically adjust power distribution based on real-time demand patterns. Bilateral agreements with neighbouring countries can also be explored to allow more adaptable export terms that accommodate domestic supply constraints.

The IES analysis underscores an urgent need for Ghana to bolster its power generation framework, ensuring a more reliable domestic supply while supporting its regional energy commitments.