The International Monetary Fund has projected that economic growth should gradually recover to its long-term potential of around 5% from 2026 onwards.
In its country report after the board approval of an economic recovery programme of $3 billion, the fund stated that growth is expected to remain subdued in the coming years, while inflation gradually returns to target.
It noted that the implementation of the IMF program should help return inflation to single digits by 2025. The current account deficit would reach around 3 percent of GDP over the medium term.
“The current crisis, the envisaged fiscal consolidation path and domestic debt restructuring, as well as the difficult external environment is expected to lower growth to around 1.5 percent in 2023.
“This assumes expansion of 6.1 percent in extractive sectors (primarily oil, gas, and gold) supported by buoyant commodity prices, and 0.7 percent in non-extractive sectors—the lowest values since the 1980s,” parts of the report read.
On the other hand, the current growth in the country’s population which currently stands at more than 2% would imply a recession in per capita terms.
“The relatively strong performance in extractive activities (about 6 percent annual growth in 2023-26) reflects the opening of large new gold mines, the ongoing recovery in small-scale gold mines, as well as the planned expansion in oil and gas production,” the report said.
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