Ghana tops global real policy rate rankings at 14.3% - Fitch Solutions

Fitch Solutions has announced that Ghana currently holds the highest real policy rate globally, at 14.3%, according to its latest outlook report.

This figure reflects a sharp drop in inflation amid a still-elevated benchmark interest rate. Ghana’s headline inflation eased to 13.7% in June this year, while the Bank of Ghana maintained its policy rate at 28% since March.

The report notes that the combination of slowing inflation, strong external buffers, and rising investor appetite for emerging market yields supports the case for imminent monetary easing.

“This continues to attract yield-seeking investors, particularly in the context of policy loosening in developed markets. However, high gold prices and the accumulation of FX reserves suggest the BoG can begin cutting rates without triggering significant depreciation of the cedi,” Fitch stated.

Fitch Solutions projects that the central bank will initiate a policy easing cycle in September, with a cumulative 200 basis-point cut expected by year-end bringing the rate down to 26%.

The firm also observed that the recent disinflationary trend increases the likelihood of an earlier rate cut.

“Given the sharp drop in inflation combined with robust reserves and muted global energy prices, we cannot rule out a rate cut in July,” Fitch added.

In response to the latest data, Fitch Solutions has revised its inflation outlook downward. Average inflation is now forecast at 15.4% for 2025 and 12.2% for 2026, down from previous projections of 17.1% and 13.9%, respectively.

SP/MA

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