Senyo Hosi commends government for cedi appreciation

Economic policy analyst, Senyo Hosi, has commended the John Mahama government and economic managers for what he describes as an unexpected and well-executed turnaround in the Ghana cedi’s strength in 2025.

Responding to recent commentary on the cedi’s appreciation against major international currencies, Hosi rejected claims that the International Monetary Fund was the primary driver of the cedi’s sharp turnaround.

He said the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Ghana deserve credit for stabilising the economy and coordinating fiscal and monetary policy in a way not seen in decades.

He argued that while the IMF programme helped prevent further deterioration, it could not logically explain a forecast-defying appreciation of the cedi.

“We must commend our leaders as quickly and openly for their successes as we criticise them for their shortcomings,” he said, describing the work of the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Ghana as decisive in restoring stability many thought impossible a year earlier.

Hosi’s comments follow arguments on some media platforms suggesting that as much as 55 percent of the cedi’s appreciation in 2025 was attributable to debt relief and Ghana’s IMF programme.

That position has been associated with analysis by policy advocate Bright Simons, who cited his own modelling as linking the cedi’s gains to the IMF programme.

Hosi said such claims confuse stabilisation with propulsion.

He acknowledged that the IMF played a crucial role when Ghana’s economy was under severe stress in 2022, providing a framework that restored confidence, rebuilt reserves and imposed fiscal discipline.

“The IMF helped us stop the bleeding,” he said.

Afreximbank deal a boost for Ghana’s debt restructuring completion — IMF.

“But a handrail keeps you from falling; it does not lift you up the staircase.”

According to him, by the start of 2025, all major elements of the IMF programme and debt restructuring were already public knowledge and fully priced into the foreign exchange market.

As a result, they could not have produced a large and sudden appreciation.

Hosi pointed to IMF and independent forecasts made at the end of 2024, which broadly projected continued depreciation of the cedi in 2025.

Instead, the currency appreciated by roughly 29 percent against the US dollar at its strongest point, moving from about 14.7 cedis to the dollar to near 10.45, before averaging stronger levels over the year.

Such a result, he argued, represents a significant forecasting error rather than confirmation of IMF impact.

Drawing on established financial theory, he said exchange rates respond most strongly to new and unexpected information, not to policies already known to markets.

He also cited the absence of any noticeable exchange-rate movement following specific IMF announcements and disbursements in July 2025 as evidence that IMF actions were not the trigger for the cedi’s gains.

Instead, Hosi attributed the cedi’s performance to a combination of domestic policy choices and favourable external conditions.

On the domestic side, he praised improved coordination between fiscal authorities and the central bank, as well as operational innovations involving the GoldBod, which helped channel increased official gold exports.

Externally, he pointed to a rally in global gold prices that boosted foreign exchange inflows and created room for more effective market interventions.

“The cooperation and discipline we saw from our economic managers in 2025 was exceptional,” he said, adding that Ghanaian policymakers had demonstrated that local expertise could deliver results without always relying on external validation.

While commending the progress made, Hosi warned against complacency. He echoed comments by Bank of Ghana Governor Johnson Asiamah that currency strength is not permanent unless supported by a productive, competitive and disciplined real economy.

“These gains are real, but they are not yet structural,” he said, urging continued reforms to sustain stability over the long term.

Hosi concluded by calling for humility and honesty in public policy debates, arguing that trust is built when analysts and advocates are willing to correct errors and give credit where it is due.

“Our people have shown they have brains too,” he said.

“The schooling is working,” he added.