IMF upgrades Ghana's 2026 economic growth forecast to 5.7%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its forecast for Ghana’s economic growth in 2026 to 5.7%, up from 4.6% projected in April. The Fund also expects inflation to fall to 4.8% by the end of the year.

The new projections were published in the IMF’s latest economic outlook report during the IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand.

GhanaWeb Business understands that the improved growth forecast reflects the government’s efforts to control spending, support economic activity and increase export earnings, particularly from gold.

Additionally, higher gold earnings have helped Ghana improve its trade balance and build financial reserves. The country’s commitment to targets under the IMF’s Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) programme has also contributed to the improved outlook.

However, the IMF has repeatedly raised concerns about Ghana’s reliance on gold exports and urged the government to diversify its exports. This would help reduce the economy’s exposure to changes in gold prices on the international market.

The Fund expects Ghana’s economy to grow by 5.2% in 2027, slower than the 5.7% projected for 2026.

The latest forecast is also higher than the government’s growth estimate of 4.8% in the 2026 Budget.

Data from the Ghana Statistical Service show that the economy grew by 6.0% in the second quarter of 2026, bringing growth for the first half of the year to 6.2%.

The IMF has also lowered its forecast for Ghana’s year-end inflation to 4.8%, from the 7.9% projected in April.

The new forecast is below the government’s and Bank of Ghana’s inflation target range of 6% to 10%.

Ghana’s inflation rate stood at 5.2% in September. The IMF’s latest projection suggests that price increases could slow further before the end of the year.

If the forecast is achieved, Ghana will record single-digit inflation at the end of the year for the second consecutive year, following a similar outcome in 2025.

Meanwhile, the World Bank has kept its forecast for Ghana’s economic growth at 4.8% for 2026 and expects it to rise slightly to 4.9% in 2027.

In its October 2026 Africa economic update, the Bank said growth would be supported by the services sector, a recovery in oil and gas production, and continued economic and government spending reforms.

The World Bank also highlighted strong domestic demand in the second quarter, with investment rising by 53.0% and domestic demand increasing by 11.2%, reflecting higher spending by households, businesses and the government.



Story by Mawuli Ahorlumegah, reporting from the 2026 IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Thailand, Bangkok