Economy expands 7.4% in July as services, industry rebound

Economic activity expanded by 7.4 percent year-on-year in July 2026, driven by strong growth in services and a rebound in industry, providing further evidence of improving domestic conditions.

This comes at a time when the government expects full-year growth to exceed the International Monetary Fund's 5.7 percent forecast.

The Ghana Statistical Service's (GSS) Monthly Indicator of Economic Growth (MIEG) showed that services remained the largest contributor to economic expansion, accounting for 63.8 percent of overall growth, while industry's recovery reflected stronger activity in mining and quarrying.

The July performance comes amid improving business and consumer confidence, faster private-sector credit growth and a stronger fiscal position. However, slowing agricultural growth and renewed inflationary pressures could complicate efforts to sustain the recovery.

The MIEG index rose to 121.6 in July from 113.2 in the corresponding period of 2025, indicating an increase in measured economic activity.

The services sector grew by 12.2 percent, up from 6.7 percent a year earlier, representing an acceleration of 5.5 percentage points. The GSS attributed the performance largely to the information and communication sub-sector, with the services index climbing to 128.5 from 114.5.

Industry expanded by 5.4 percent, reversing the marginal 0.4 percent growth recorded in July 2025. The sector contributed 20.5 percent to overall growth, while its index increased to 117.1 from 111.1, supported by activity in mining and quarrying.

Agriculture, however, grew by 3.7 percent, down from 8.2 percent a year earlier. Although the sector accounted for 14.1 percent of overall growth, the 4.5-percentage-point slowdown highlights a divergence in the pace of expansion across the economy.

The GSS said growth in crops and livestock supported the increase in the agricultural index to 113.7 from 109.6.

Net taxes contributed 1.6 percent to overall economic growth.

Growth outlook strengthens

The latest figures reinforce the government's expectation that economic growth could surpass the IMF's revised projection of 5.7 percent for 2026, up from its April forecast of 4.6 percent.

Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson said the government was confident of exceeding the updated estimate, citing fiscal discipline and reforms intended to restore macroeconomic stability.

"The IMF has upgraded Ghana's 2026 growth forecast from 4.6 percent to 5.7 percent. We are confident we will exceed that projection," he said on the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand.

The forecast upgrade follows evidence of stronger domestic activity, although quarterly data point to a more measured pace of expansion. Real gross domestic product grew by 6.0 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, according to Bank of Ghana data, below the 6.6 percent recorded in the same period of 2025. Non-oil GDP growth also slowed to 5.4 percent from 8.5 percent.

Other indicators have been more buoyant. The Composite Index of Economic Activity recorded annual growth of 14.9 percent in July, compared with 6.1 percent a year earlier, supported by private-sector credit, international trade and consumption.

The GSS cautioned that the MIEG remains an experimental statistic subject to continuous improvement and revisions. As the indicator is not seasonally adjusted, it reports annual changes rather than month-on-month growth rates.

The next release, covering August 2026, is scheduled for November 11.