1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Prog. 1/

Est.

(Annual Percentage change, unless otherwise specified)

National income and prices

Real GDP

4.4

3.7

4.2

4.5

4.5

4.7

Real GDP per capita

1.8

1.2

1.6

1.9

1.9

2.1

Nominal GDP

19.0

31.9

40.2

23.3

28.3

33.6

GDP deflator

13.9

27.2

34.6

18.0

22.8

27.6

Consumer price index (annual average)

12.4

25.2

32.9

15.9

14.8

26.9

Consumer price index (end of period)

11.8

40.5

21.3

13.0

15.2

22.0

External sector

Exports, f.o.b.

-4.1

-3.5

-3.6

7.6

10.6

12.1

Imports, f.o.b.

11.4

-15.2

2.6

7.8

-4.1

16.8

Export volume

8.9

1.0

-1.3

3.7

-1.5

2.7

Import volume

9.6

-26.0

10.0

11.1

-6.8

7.6

Terms of trade

-13.4

-16.6

4.8

6.9

9.1

0.7

Nominal effective exchange rate (avg.)

-9.3

-46.3

-24.0

...

-11.7

...

Real effective exchange rate (avg.)

0.5

-35.5

0.7

...

-0.6

...

Cedis per U.S. dollar (avg.)

2,669

5,431

7,179

...

7,947

...

Government budget

Domestic revenue (excluding grants)

6.0

42.9

43.5

38.1

27.5

60.3

Total expenditure

9.0

39.6

65.5

34.0

2.4

50.0

Current expenditure

13.1

48.9

50.5

22.8

28.8

33.5

Capital expenditure and net lending

4.1

24.1

95.7

39.4

-38.7

104.1

Money and credit

Net domestic assets 2/

46.0

49.1

13.5

6.6

14.0

-1.7

Credit to government 2/

38.2

57.7

0.0

1.8

32.6

0.0

Credit to pubic enterprises 2/ 3/

9.0

19.2

9.7

1.9

-9.0

1.5

Credit to the private sector 2/ 3/

24.9

34.4

12.0

17.1

17.7

18.8

Broad money (excluding foreign currency deposits)

19.8

33.4

48.4

25.2

50.0

25.0

Reserve money (excluding foreign currency deposits)

35.8

52.6

31.3

18.7

42.6

24.5

Velocity (GDP/end-of-period broad money)

5.2

5.1

4.8

4.9

4.1

4.4

Treasury bill yield (in percent; end of period)

34.2

42.0

28.9

...

28.2

...

(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise specified)

Investment and saving

Gross investment

21.5

24.0

26.6

22.3

19.7

23.0

Private

11.7

14.8

13.8

13.1

13.6

13.6

Public

9.8

9.2

12.8

9.2

6.1

9.4

Gross national saving

9.9

15.6

21.3

16.3

20.3

21.2

Private

8.3

14.3

16.1

11.6

19.2

14.9

Public

1.6

1.3

5.1

4.7

1.2

6.3

Government budget

Total revenue

16.4

17.7

18.1

18.7

18.0

21.6

Grants

1.7

2.1

6.9

4.2

3.1

4.6

Total expenditure

26.2

27.7

32.7

28.4

26.1

29.3

Overall balance (excluding grants) 4/

-9.8

-10.0

-14.6

-9.7

-8.1

-7.7

Overall balance (including grants) 5/

-8.0

-9.7

-9.0

-7.0

-6.8

-3.9

Domestic primary balance

0.4

2.6

3.8

3.1

2.0

2.9

Divestiture receipts

0.3

1.2

0.0

0.8

0.0

0.7

Net Domestic Financing

6.3

8.5

2.3

0.3

4.8

0.0

External sector

Current account balance 6/

-11.6

-8.4

-5.3

-6.4

0.6

-1.8

External debt outstanding

109.9

169.7

131.5

124.0

112.3

96.4

External debt service, including to the Fund

6.8

11.2

8.5

6.8

7.8

6.3

(in percent of exports of goods and nonfactor services)

21.1

23.0

18.9

15.9

18.4

15.6

(in percent of government revenue)

37.5

56.5

34.1

29.4

37.1

24.2

(In millions of U.S. dollars, unless otherwise specified)

Current account balance 6/

-895

-419

-283

-393

38

-131

Overall balance of payments

-266

-123

-2

-146

39

-77

Change in external arrears (decrease -)

62

27

61

0

-61

0

Gross international reserves (end of period)

317

264

344

629

631

811

(in months of imports of goods and services)

1.0

0.9

1.2

2.0

1.9

2.3

Nominal GDP (in billions of cedis)

20,580

27,153

38,071

46,875

48,862

65,262

Sources: Ghanaians authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

1/ Based on MEFP of 1/31/02 (EBS/02/16)

2/ In percent of broad money at the beginning of the period.

3/ Credit from deposit money banks to public enterprises and the private sector respectively.

4/ Before domestic arrears clearance.

5/ After domestic arrears clearance.

6/ Including official grants.