Economic missteps, corruption, others led to NPP's defeat – FDAG report

The Forum for Development and Accountable Governance (FDAG) has attributed the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) crushing defeat in the 2024 general elections to a blend of economic mismanagement, corruption, and governance failures. In its post-election analysis report titled "Comparative Analysis of Past Presidential and Parliamentary Elections in Ghana," FDAG emphasized:

"The NPP’s inability to address rising inflation, unemployment, and a depreciating cedi left many Ghanaians disillusioned with their economic policies. Coupled with systemic corruption and governance lapses, the electorate decisively rejected the ruling party at the polls."

The report revealed that these factors contributed to the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) securing a commanding 56.55% of the presidential vote, compared to the NPP’s 41.6% (with the exception of 9 constituencies). This marks a significant shift from the 2020 elections, where the NPP secured 51.3% of the vote, and the NDC trailed with 47.9%. Additionally, the NDC flipped several parliamentary seats, securing a legislative majority and cementing its dominance.

Economic Mismanagement

FDAG's analysis underscores the NPP’s failure to stabilize the economy as the foremost reason for its defeat. It highlighted how rising inflation, a depreciating cedi, and escalating unemployment rates alienated the electorate. The report stated: "The government’s inability to tackle critical economic challenges, such as spiralling inflation and a rapidly weakening cedi, left the electorate with little faith in its economic policies."

A comparative analysis of inflation trends revealed that the annual inflation rate surged from 13.9% in 2020 to an unprecedented 54% in 2022 and 23% in 2024, with unsustainable debt levels of 120 billion in 2016 to a whopping 767 billion in 2024. Similarly, the cedi depreciated by over 60% against the US dollar between 2022 and 2024, exacerbating the cost of living. FDAG observed that the government’s debt restructuring program, while necessary, was poorly implemented, stating:

"The debt restructuring efforts, while necessary, were poorly communicated and poorly executed, leaving many Ghanaians to shoulder the brunt of the economic burden."

Unemployment trends were equally dire, with the unemployment rate climbing from 8.4% in 2020 to 15.7% by 2024. The much-touted "One District, One Factory" initiative failed to create sustainable jobs or drive industrial growth. FDAG noted:

"The lack of tangible results from flagship programs, particularly in job creation and industrialization, deepened public disenchantment with the NPP's leadership."

Corruption and Governance Failures

The report also highlighted corruption and governance failures as critical factors contributing to the NPP's electoral defeat. According to FDAG:

"The perception of systemic corruption and cronyism, coupled with allegations of financial mismanagement, created a damaging narrative that overshadowed any achievements of the government."

FDAG's comparative analysis of governance indices revealed that Ghana’s Corruption Perception Index (CPI) score dropped from 43 in 2020 to 37 in 2024, reflecting growing concerns about public sector corruption. Additionally, trust in government institutions, as measured by Afrobarometer surveys, fell from 56% in 2018 to just 31% in 2024, underscoring widespread disillusionment with the ruling party.

FDAG pointed to the lack of transparency in public procurement processes and the government’s failure to address allegations of corruption as major contributors to voter discontent. The report concluded:

"The NPP’s inability to convincingly address corruption concerns not only damaged its anti-corruption agenda but also fueled voter discontent."

Environmental Mismanagement

The NPP's failure to address illegal mining, or galamsey, was another significant factor cited in the report. FDAG highlighted: "The environmental destruction caused by galamsey directly impacted livelihoods undermined agricultural productivity, and worsened public health outcomes in mining communities."

According to FDAG, Ghana's forest cover declined by 12% between 2020 and 2024, with illegal mining accounting for a significant portion of the damage. Water pollution levels in key river basins, such as Pra and Ankobra, reached critical thresholds, adversely affecting agricultural yields and public health. FDAG observed: "The NPP government’s perceived failure to combat the galamsey menace became a rallying cry for environmental justice and accountability."

NDC’s Campaign Strategy

While the NPP struggled to address pressing national issues, the NDC effectively capitalized on voter dissatisfaction with a well-structured and resonant campaign. FDAG remarked: "The NDC effectively aligned its messaging with the socio-economic frustrations of the electorate, focusing on job creation, environmental restoration, and debt recovery."

The NDC’s manifesto commitments to create one million jobs by 2026, recover degraded lands, and pursue aggressive debt relief programs resonated with the electorate. FDAG’s trend analysis revealed that the NDC gained traction among youth and first-time voters, with voter turnout in key swing constituencies such as Ayawaso West Wuogon increasing by 18%, compared to a decline in traditional NPP strongholds like Ashanti Region, where turnout dropped by 12%.

The Path Forward

FDAG’s analysis concluded that the 2024 elections represent a seismic shift in Ghanaian politics, reflecting voters’ demand for accountability, transparency, and effective governance. However, the report cautioned the NDC against complacency, stating: "The NDC must now deliver on its promises to stabilize the economy, restore public trust, and implement policies that address the lapses of the previous administration."

To sustain public confidence, FDAG urged the NDC to prioritize inclusivity and transparency in governance. The report emphasized: "Sustaining public confidence will require the NDC to adopt a governance approach that places accountability and inclusivity at its core."

As Ghana transitions into a new political era, the FDAG report underscores the need for transformative leadership that addresses unemployment, and economic mismanagement, tackles corruption, and prioritizes environmental restoration.

The NDC faces the daunting task of meeting these heightened public expectations while laying the groundwork for sustainable development.

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