2024 Ghana General Election: A tsunami of civil uprising that shattered predictions, 'overthrew' the incumbent government

The outcome of the 2024 general elections which were held on the 7th of December was shocking to the incumbent party, the opposition, political researchers, and pollsters.

While many research institutions and pollsters had predicted a win for the major opposition party which had presented John Dramani Mahama a former president of the Republic of Ghana for the 2024 general elections, few also predicted a win or runoff which they stated could be an advantage to the incumbent party.

Global InfoAnalytic, Bloomberg, Data Insight Group, and some other research institutions and pollsters predicted a win for former President Mahama, while Institute of Progressive Governance (I.P.G), renowned Ghanaian pollster Ben Ephson and Prof. Smart predicted a win for the incumbent party which was being led by current vice president Dr Mahamadu Bawumia.

All predictions that were carried out by these researchers are works they believed in as they had confidence in their methodologies, sample sizes, research questions, and all other elements which they factored in the process of collecting data and analyzing the data which gave them the results of their final research.

Ghanaians and other nationals who had an interest in the outcome of these elections were expecting the outcome of these researchers to be reflected in the 2024 general elections.

Although the principal outcome of those who predicted a win for former President John Dramani Mahama and NDC to hold a majority in the 9th parliament manifested in the election its prediction of a fair number of seats for the incumbent party rather exacerbated in their projections.

While the researchers analyzed the elections as a tight and close contest between the two dominant parties the results of the general elections proved otherwise by former President John Dramani Mahama winning with a landslide victory with a record that has never been recorded in Ghana’s political history since it transitioned into democratic rule in 1992, with a majority in the 9th parliament that has also never been recorded after 1992 election which the PNDC leader who transitioned the country from the military regime into democratic system of government won the elections in 1992 and parliamentary elections in 1993 with 189 seats out of 200 seats, which the main opposition parties boycotted as they alleged the outcome of the presidential election was rigged by the government.

John Dramani Mahama in these elections had 6,328,397 representing %56.55 and the NDC had 185 parliamentary seats while Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia secured only 4,657,304 representing %41.61 and about 90 seats confirmed by the electoral commission at the time the final declaration was made. History has again repeated itself but this time around an opposition party won with such a mammoth victory.

2024 general elections which saw former President John Dramani Mahama winning in over 13 regions with great margins, and also winning over 15 traditional seats which were considered safe seats for the NPP is historical which has never happened in our political landscape.

This year's elections saw the NDC adding 4 new more seats to the already 3 they had in the 8th parliament making the number of total seats obtained by them 7 in the Ashanti Region which is a known stronghold of the NPP which is unprecedented in our political history.

The valid cast votes that declared former President John Dramani Mahama as the president of the Republic of Ghana showed it was not a politically motivated vote, but the anger of the entire populace toward the current government for the excruciating economic hardship which they plunged the country into through what many believed was because they mismanaged the economy.

Ghana recorded its 2nd highest inflation rate in 2022 at %54.1 after 22 years when it recorded its highest at %63.10. This caused the country to witness skyrocketing prices in everyday goods such as groceries, pharmaceutical products, and petroleum products, and the depreciation of the cedi.

A report published by the Institute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research (ISSER) in 2023 on the Ghanaian economy in 2022 stated that the cedi faced a cumulative depreciation of %51 against the U.S. dollar and %44 against the Euro.

According to myjoyonline.com, on its publication on 5th November 2024, the cumulative depreciation from the start of this year to October 2024 is nearly %29. And as of today 11th December 2023 the cedi is selling at 15 cedis to the dollar which was 3.8 cedis when the incumbent first came into power in 2016—as an import-dependent country, importers needed to exchange more cedi for dollar to facilitate their businesses which automatically rises the inflation.

Taxes such as the E-Levy tax, tax on bet winnings, COVID-19 tax, and emission levy which experts termed as nuisance taxes a burden on businesses and people which the government was advised to review or scrap to reduce its burden were never adhered to.

Another factor that contributed to the devasted loss of the party was the Domestic Debt Exchange Program (DDEP), high banking interest rates. All these had a direct effect on people especially those in the business world. Again, the destruction of water bodies by illegal miners which the government showed no interest in fighting against for the fear of it affecting its electoral fortunes within the enclaves was done.

Another contributing factor was the widespread political bias by the judiciary especially the supreme court which led to %62 of Ghanaians having little or no trust in the judicial system as captured in the Afrobarometer 2021/2023 survey.

While these were the factors, it is important to note that, President Akuffo Addo disregarded Ghanaians and 90 of his parliamentarians out of 187 who were asking for the removal of then-finance minister Ken Offori Atta in 2022 when Ghana was experiencing an exponential surge in inflation and depreciating of the cedi.

Ghanaians for this reason viewed Akuffo Addo and his government as wicked towards the plight of people and not bothered about their welfare to the extent some referred to him as an autocratic leader as they believed the country was governed solely by his ideas and not accepting any form of suggestion or advice from his government.

The cumulative effect of all the above influenced the choice of Ghanaians to vote for former president John Dramani Mahama as a way of expressing their displeasure and anger with the incumbent government.

Although NDC members came out in their numbers to vote for their party, the election deciders who are the floating voters and most of the NPP core base voted for the NDC this is to say that Ghanaians did not vote based on political lines, and not for policies, they voted for a change of government just to show the ruling government they have the power to also decides its future.

Ashanti Region which is the electoral world bank of the ruling party did not participate much in the voting process because they were not also spared from the woes of the mismanagement of the economy, neglect of developmental projects in the region, and failure to fulfill the promises they made to the region during the 2020 campaign which convinced them to vote massively for the party to retain power.

The 2024 election is a tsunami that came to clear off the incumbent government and its parliamentarians, a tsunami in which nothing could have been done to curb the casualty the NPP suffered because no one expected the severity of it to be this high. That is why the performance of the NDC in these elections was even shocking to the party itself.

It will be fair to deduce from these elections that, Ghanaians are more discerning than they have ever been, and for this reason, this is a wakeup call to President John Dramani Mahama to put in more effort in making sure it fulfills the promises he and his party the NDC made to Ghanaians in order not to incur the wrath of Ghanaians.

Ghanaians have proven that the sovereignty and power of government lie in the thumps of its citizens—and as Abraham Lincoln said “the ballot is stronger than a bullet”.

Ghanaians might never resort to the vandalism and hooligans that are associated with the uprising, but they will always do that through the ballot in a vengeful way which will be more shameful, demeaning, and devastating to any government that takes the plight and concerns of citizens for granted especially on issues which threatens their source of livelihood or the essence of their existence.

Today Ghanaian is not that of yesterday and for that reason, politicians, researchers, and pollsters need to review some of the factors they rely on in assessing the average Ghanaian response to political actions. This should be done for them to be more accurate in their analysis to help political actors make informed decisions to address the concerns of the people to be able to earn their goodwill.

The outcome of this election has shown a new dynamic in our political landscape and should serve as a blueprint to guide politicians on how to govern and relate with citizens on every level.