Post verdict NPP

: How the party can survive past disappointment and the coming storm

In the wake of a long drawn out petition that has sapped the party's energy and exposed some latent divisions, the New Patriotic Party would need to ask itself some difficult questions. The answers to these questions would surely be important but it would be even more important to ensure that it asks itself the right questions.

The NPP is not only dealing with an adverse verdict in a landmark petition – one that it was sure it was going to win – but it also has to deal with the (legally confirmed) loss of the 2012 election. While the petition was being fought, that process was held in abeyance; now there will be little to hold back the recriminations, which maybe as plentiful as the tears.

It will be important for the NPP to quickly identify what its immediate problems are in order to develop the right fixes. We see these to be a demoralised party base, a divided and leadership, the emergence of an asymmetric power structure and the potentially divisive struggle for control that would inevitably be set up by the preceding factors. All of these could end up in significant damage to the party's image and brand. With barely three years to the next election, the party has little choice than to deal with them.

With both the leadership and the base rattled by the turn of events, the party may lose momentum going forward. The leadership and their capacity to deliver, will be questioned and even lampooned. Some of the party’s base, along with independent voters, may hold the view that the party has taken the country through months of pain with little to justify. And there are those who may question whether the party still has the values that brought it to power in 2000, given the negative press as a result of the verdict. All these are legitimate concerns that the party needs to address.

It is imperative for the party to seek to restore morale amongst its base, repair and limit the damage of its image, and to project a pathway that could bolster confidence in the electorate. This could be done by a committee of eminent party leaders of good standing in the eyes of the public. This committee of eminent people should also be a forum, in the shape of a ‘truth and reconciliation commission’, for aggrieved party members to express their concerns for redress. This internal ‘truth and reconciliation’ mechanism should be aimed at averting possible implosion that could arise during the internal party leadership contest at congress, which could further undermine the credibility of the party and could potentially harm the party’s future electioneering prospects. Members of the party who have come in for harsh criticism and even punishment for expressing divergent opinions could be rehabilated and brought into the mainstream via this mechanism. The elephant in the room would of course be the now vacant position of the party's presidential candidate. As tempting as it is, the party should resist the urge to immediately start casting about for a new candidate with what may appear to be indecent haste. Already, there have been calls from loyalist of the most recent candidate for him to be retained. This has the potential of making the next few months of the party's life a referundum on the future of a single individual. This will not only be a collosal strategic error, but also unfair to that individual, the party and the nation Ghana, which deserves to have a credible alternative government in waiting.

It is safe to argue that the way forward for the NPP is more than one person's future, but the entire party’s direction going forward. The NPP wants power, which is the cardinal reason for the party’s being, and it must think clearly and carefully about how to get it. What that means is that it must not rush into another leadership contest without considering the collateral damage that it could suffer in its bid to that power.

Thus, it will be in the interest of the party to critically look into the wider reasons for its last two defeats. For example, President Kufour won 6/7 regions to annex power in 2000 elections. Since then, the party has consistently underperformed in most of these regions but two, Eastern and Ashanti. Indeed, the NDC is gaining in Ashanti and even closing in on the NPP in the Eastern Regions. While it has made appreciable gains in the Northern Region, its losses in the south have kept it from the Flagstaff House. Had the NPP won in the Greater Accra, Central or Western Region, it would be in office today. More worrying still, the urban vote, long considered safe for the NPP, is also no longer assured. In Accra, areas like Labone and Airport Residential Area have fallen to NDC in recent elections. These trends characterise a party in retreat, losing traction among floating voters and visibly paints serious fundamental issues that the NPP must confront. The above also has implications on the brand. The party must use the losses as an opportunity to reflect and carve out a unique and nationally acceptable identity. It must reposition itself as the party of aspiration and opportunities, as it did in the 2000 campaign, and needs to have a set of measures through which it seeks to communicate and influence perceptions of the electorate. This identity must be constantly communicated so it becomes an easily and handily referenced attribute of the party. The party must actively court independents by drumming home a message that unites people behind a set of core values. Its record in office can serve as a guide in determining what issues it chooses to focus on. By asessing the popularity of its measures, it would be able to determine which ones to remind voters of and which ones it should seek a clean break from.

Despite strident denials from the leadership, it is clear that recent divisions among the leadership and the emergence of asymmetric power struggle have eroded the party’s gains over the years as a party for government, unified in leadership and disciplined to perform. That is not to say that these divisions haven’t been there. While the NPP has always had strong personalities, the party and the leadership it had, knew how to blend the talents and personalities to offer Ghanaians a capable team.

In a doctoral research conducted by this writer on the 2000 campaign, it was discovered that the NPP's proferring of a team as the vehicle of delivery, was very effective. It would be recalled that among many catch phrases of that campaign was “we have the men”. In that campaign, the party sought to show the electorate that it had a team with the experience, the capability and the cohesion to deliver. This had the added value of deflecting from any weaknesses that the candidate may have had. In the last two campaigns, the party has sought to present a sort of “Messiah” candidate, which has led to undue focus on the personality of the candidate, which has even, on occasion, detracted from the party's message.

As the party settles into opposition with an eye on the next election, it will need to be careful not to become the party of “no”. While that plays well with its supporters, the wider electorate prefer moderates and conciliatory politics. The party must see this and present the right face(s) to the electorate. Instead of promoting up the ranks the communicators that have the harshest words for the government and the President, the NPP will need to present itself as the party of ideas, of reform and of ability.

Competitive politics and a globalised, interconnected world has produced a very complex voter that requires careful study by any party of candidate seeking their vote. It will be important for the NPP and indeed all other parties in Ghana to progressively seek out scientific and professional approaches and personell to help tell their story and manage their images. Political operators must learn to employ and trust professional managers and not rely on emotion, gut feelings, dishonest hangers-on and its loudest supporters.

By Dr Kobby Mensah

With additional contributions from S Kwame Appiah and Kobby G. Mensah