Yesterday, Yaw Osafo-Maafo described the Research International polls on who wins the flagbearership of the New Patriotic Party as "the most credible polls so far,” even though the margin of error is still high since the actual delegates are yet to be selected.
The RI study, like others before it, suggests that the December 22 national congress of the NPP is not likely to nominate a clear winner, resulting in a re-run.
Yesterday, both Ben Ephson's Daily Dispatch and Gina Blay’s Daily Guide followed the line that no candidate is likely to get the required 50 percent (+1).
But, one day before the Saturday, April 20, 1996 congress, the former campaign manager of disqualified candidate Kwame Pianim, Mr Osafo-Maafo predicted a re-run between John Agyekum Kufuor and Prof Adu Boahen, with Dr Jones Ofori-Atta as the dark horse since, “none of them can secure a clear victory from the look of things.”
In all the three previous contests, the winner has emerged by 'one touch’ vote. According to the RI polls, the two top candidates, Akufo-Addo and Aliu Mahama were commanding about 56% of party support out of the 17 aspirants featured. Stretch it further, 86% of delegates’ votes could go to only five candidates.
Though, there is likely to be a record number of people presented to the 2007 congress, this may not necessarily change the NPP tradition where delegates vote en bloc.
This is because every delegate is likely to have a second choice. Internal contest is peculiar in its fluidity of allegiance. Since it is a family affair a transfer of support from one candidate to the other is not seen as being as sinful as crossing carpet from one party to the other.
Add to the fact that delegates just don’t enjoy wasting their votes; it is likely that the majority of votes for candidates other than the very few clear frontrunners will end up being transferred to a frontrunner.
Similar noises were made in 1992 by and about party stalwarts like Kofi Dsane Selby, Kwame Safo Adu, and John Agyekum Kufuor. In the end, Albert Adu Boahen ran home with 1,121 of the 1,998 delegates’ votes, representing 56%.
President Kufuor often reminds his party members of business tycoon and aspirant, J A Addison, who in 1992 allegedly bussed and camped all the delegates from the Western Region, excluding the two from Nzema who fell ill. When the votes were counted Dr Addison received 32 (1.6%) of the 1,998 votes counted at the Great Hall, University of Ghana.
The Statesman of weekending August 23, 1992, reported, "Accepting the victory of Adu Boahen, the other aspirants pledged their full support, physically and otherwise. Mr J A Kufuor said from now on he is going to work hand in hand with Prof Adu Boahen to make sure that victory at Presidential and Parliamentary election is won by NPP. Dr Addison agreed that Prof Adu Boahen is the most popular candidate and that he deserves to ride ‘the biggest elephant.’"
The situation was not that different in 1996, candidate Kufuor, who chose to travel across the country in 1993 to thank all party delegates for the 1992 contest, overtook both Prof Adu Boahen and Dr Selby to win the April 20th contest.
Out of the 1,996 valid delegates’ votes, Mr Kufuor received 1,034 (51%). Prof Adu Boahen came second with 710 votes (35.7%). J H Mensah came a distant third with 110 votes (5.5%).
On Saturday, October 24, 1998, J A Kufuor again stole away from the pack with 1,286 (64.8%) of the 1,984 valid votes. He was followed by Nana Akufo-Addo with 628 votes (31.7%). Again, the third placed candidate, Kofi Konadu Apraku, lagged way behind with 52 votes, representing 2.6%.
There is nothing to suggest that the one touch phenomenon of the NPP is for changing in 2007.
