NPP leads in latest IMANI public sentiment analysis

More Ghanaians are saying positive things about the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) than the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) on social media, the latest IMANI Public Understanding and Literacy for Sentiment and Election Analysis (PULSE) has shown.

According to the PULSE, out of the total mentions of the NPP on social media, nearly 16% of the sentiments expressed about the party were positive, a more than 5 percentage points increase from the 10.71% positive sentiment recorded in the previous survey.

For the NDC, positive sentiments on the party stood at 11.38%, a nearly 2 percentage points increase from 9.5% recorded previously.

"The NPP and NDC seem to take seriously how the conduct of their members and officers reflect in these analyses. The NPP’s positive sentiments, however, improved significantly from 10.71% to around 15.76%. This trend follows the previous month's trend of NPP having more positive sentiment information on social media. The NDC's positive sentiment increased slightly by 2% from 9.50% to 11.38%," parts of a brief by IMANI on the analysis reads.

The PULSE also showed that negative sentiments toward the two leading political parties generally reduced for the period in question, but the NPP saw a more drastic reduction.

"Purely negative sentiment over the period decreased for both party candidates. People who spoke of NPP negatively fell from about 17% to around 12%, showing that the trend where NPP was having fewer negative sentiments continued within the time period. NDC also had their negative sentiments fall, albeit by an almost 3% margin," IMANI wrote.

The think tank gave the following reasons for the sentiment recorded by the NDC and the NPP.

“The public stance on the issue of LGBTQ+ by candidate Bawumia on the auspicious occasion of the Eid celebrations contributed much to his positive sentiments on social media. Additionally, his visit within the same period to the Vatican led to more mentions as well as positive sentiments over the period, with less negative sentiment. Also, to be noted is his renovation of the Jakpa palace, which also led to many positive sentiments and fewer negative sentiments.

“For candidate Mahama, a few positive sentiments that are emerging and might be even bigger in the very immediate future are positive sentiments around the ongoing power crisis, as well as dumsor, the issue of taxes, especially import taxes, with one viral video of candidate Mahama reviewing import duties.

“Additionally, and more significantly, the outdooring of his Vice candidate, Prof. Jane Naana Opoku-Agyeman, has boosted interactions on social media significantly, with over 4 million reaches on the day of the unveiling alone, and perhaps more if the NDC were minded to maximize Prof. Jane Naana Opoku-Agyeman’s outing to keep social media alive. On the day in question, positive sentiments were over 70%. Possibly, the SML scandal and its reports and recommendations also triggered more negative sentiments for the NPP, which resulted in more positive comments for the NDC.

“NPP still leads in mentions on social media. However, in the last period under review, the NDC has closed the gap on mentions. The NDC actually leads when it comes to non-social media reach. This includes sources like blogs, websites, podcasts, and the like. Discussions regarding Mahama’s candidacy and the ongoing power crisis are dominating the narrative.

“The biggest hashtags associated with the mentions of Mahama are as shown below. Another emerging hashtag that seems to be gaining traction is ‘#togetherforchange2024,’ which is associated with most positive sentiment mentions.

“In the case of candidate Mahama, the keyword ‘Ghana’ triggered the most mentions, with a social reach of over 30 million; however, it had far fewer engagements in terms of comments and shares. An almost comparative sample of both candidates was taken to ensure a more granular comparison of metrics with relation to mentions and engagement.

“People are also more responsive to party-related events, and several issues will be coming up in future sentiment analyses, where sentiments towards specific issues will be analyzed to see if they have bearings on overall sentiment. These will make for a more interesting reading of the space.

“The period under observation for this edition of the report is from the 26th of March to the 29th of April 2024.”

About IMANI's PULSE

IMANI Public Understanding and Literacy for Sentiment and Election Analysis (PULSE) is a Periodic Social Media Sentiment Analysis Report based on Public Sentiments Expressed on social media about the top contenders in the 2024 General Elections in Ghana.

Here is why this report/project is important:

Internet Penetration in Ghana is approximately 50% of the total population, or 15.7 million, according to Statista.com. Of this figure, approximately 6.7 million are on social media, with Ghanaian Facebook accounts alone totalling some 8.7 million users/accounts.

About 90% of these social media users are aged between 18 and 64 years of age, meaning that they are all potential and eligible voters.

For this analysis, the platforms monitored are Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, TikTok, Websites, Podcasts, News feeds, and forums.

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