Prof Smart Sarpong hits back at critics as he defends polls predicting Bawumia win

Ghanaian pollster, Professor Smart Sarpong, has defended his 2024 election polls which predicted a win for Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, the Flagbearer of the New Patriotic Party (NPP).

Speaking on Peace FM, Professor Sarpong justified the outcome of his polls based on the sample size and methodology he deployed in the research.

Beyond the methodology and sample size, Professor Smart Sarpong said he has, over the years, built credibility as a renowned pollster with accurate predictions.

He denied allegations that he was paid by the New Patriotic Party to conduct the polls, stating that he did a genuine job contrary to the claims.

“If I said that the NDC were going to win the Ashanti Region, it would not make sense. We all know how people vote in this country. The reason I’m convinced that my research is a reflection of what is happening on the ground is because I have followed everything used in research.

“I qualify to propound a theory and I did pure statistics, so I know what I’m doing. My defense is my transparency and methodology. I have been around for a long time. In 2020, I said that the NPP were not going to get their predicted percentage and it came to pass. So, beyond my methodology, I have a track record. Not only do my predictions come true, they come with accuracy,” he said.

The survey by Dr. Smart Sarpong, which was released on November 23, 2024, put the Presidential Candidate of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, in a clear lead in the presidential election, with about 49.1% of the total votes cast.

Dr. Bawumia’s closest contender, former President John Dramani Mahama, the Flagbearer of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), comes in second with about 45.8% of the votes.

The study also projected that the leader of the New Force Movement, Nana Kwame Bediako, would come in third in the election with about 2.2% of the votes, while the leader of the Movement for Change, Alan Kyerematen, would take fourth position with 1.2% of the votes.

"As of November 16, 2024 (four weeks to the elections), NPP’s Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia was in a 49.1% lead, NDC’s Mr. John Mahama coming next with 45.8%, followed by Nana Kwame Bediako with 2.2%, and Mr. John Allan Kyerematen with 1.2%.

"All other candidates put together obtained 1.7% of the votes. It is clear from this report that elections in 2024 can be won in the first round by only one of the two leading political parties, with the NPP having a higher chance of clinching a first-round victory," excerpts of the study read.



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