Bawumia is leading the NPP race, according to national security data.

With 56% of delegates supporting him, former vice president Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia is the obvious front-runner in Saturday's New Patriotic Party (NPP) presidential primary, according to new polling data from the National Security Secretariat. Ahead of the vote on January 31, Kennedy Agyapong, a former Member of Parliament (MP) for Assin Central, is well behind in second place with 25%, followed by Bryan Acheampong, an MP for Abetifi and former Agriculture Minister, with 12%.

According to the National Security surveys, Dr. Bawumia is expected to win every region in Ghana, with the exception of the Central Region, where he comes in second to Agyapong. According to a survey, 5% of delegates are still unsure, with the remaining 2% divided between former NPP General Secretary Kwabena Agyapong and former Education Minister Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum. The results show a decline in support for both of the top two candidates when compared to the party's most recent presidential primary, which took place on November 4, 2023, but they also seem to be generally in line with several internal and external surveys.

With 118,210 votes, or 61.47 percent of all valid ballots cast, Vice President Dr. Bawumia secured the NPP's presidential candidacy in that campaign. His nearest contender Kennedy Agyapong, then Assin Central MP, earned 71,996 votes at 37.41 per cent. Former Mampong MP Francis Addai Nimoh received 781 votes, or 0.41 percent, while former Agriculture Minister Dr. Owusu Afriyie Akoto received 1,459 votes, or 0.76 percent. Both of the front-runners from 2023 are expected to see a drop in their respective vote shares if present statistics maintain. The arrival of Bryan Acheampong into the race is largely responsible for this result, according to analysts.

Dr. Acheampong seems to be gaining support from both the Bawumia and Agyapong camps since announcing his presidential candidacy in July of last year, placing himself as a key player in determining the contest's conclusion.Projections made by the Bryan Acheampong campaign with Asaase News deviate considerably from National Security polls and most other surveys. Dr. Acheampong is predicted to receive 37% of the vote, according to data released by his team based on what it claims is thorough profiling of the majority of delegates.

According to the campaign, Dr. Bawumia is expected to come in second with 34% and Agyapong with 20%. According to Acheampong's camp, over 7% of delegates are still unsure. However, Asaase News's checks using sporadic calls to a small sample of delegates indicate that Dr. Bawumia is likely to benefit from a last-minute surge, potentially earning him 66% with a margin of error of less than 2%.Political observers warn that last-minute campaigning may still have an impact on the outcome, influencing both soft supporters and indecisive delegates. Some speculate that this late momentum could either increase Dr. Bawumia's share to 65% or, less likely, require a runoff.

There is also conjecture that some delegates would support a runoff because they see it as a chance to interact with candidates more and engage in more intense campaigning. NPP primaries with more than 211,000 delegates voting at 277 polling sites nationwide are set to be the largest in the party’s history. On January 22, 2026, all five candidates pledged to uphold party unity and accept the results in a peace agreement. Results will be announced at party headquarters in Asylum Down on Saturday evening at 3:00 pm. The flagbearer will give a speech, the presidential candidate will be formally unveiled, and the primary results will be announced.

Many believe that the result will be crucial in determining the opposition party's course as it gets ready for the national elections in 2028. After eight years in power, the National Democratic Congress (NDC) nominee John Mahama defeated the NPP in the 2024 presidential contest. Dr. Bawumia is expected to win, according to Global InfoAnalytics and a number of other pollsters. Executive Director Musah Danquah says estimates are backed by strong data gathering across all regions.

According to party representatives collaborating with Ghana's Electoral Commission (EC), steps have been taken to guarantee a free, fair, and reliable election.National Organiser Henry Nana Boakye reiterated NPP’s intention to follow democratic ideals and conduct transparent contest reflecting the will of delegates. NPP excluded National Security operatives from the presidential primary and assigned Police with sole security job. The party stated that it is committed to making sure the primaries on January 31 foster party cohesion and increase public trust.