As Ghana edges closer to the December 7, 2024, elections, public sentiment and political dynamics suggest a highly competitive race.
Recent findings from the Ghana Peace Awards, Ghana Leadership Awards, and the Global Economic Forum provide crucial insights into the national mood, revealing a blend of dissatisfaction with the current administration and cautious optimism about the opposition’s prospects.
Economic Challenges Shape Voter Sentiment
Economic concerns remain at the forefront of voters' minds. Since inflation began climbing in 2019, economic confidence among Ghanaians has significantly eroded. According to recent polls, 52.3% of respondents describe the economy as "poor," while just 23% rate it as "excellent" or "good." Furthermore, 59% believe the economy is "getting worse," compared to only 25% who feel it is "getting better."
This sentiment is captured in the Economic Confidence Index, which has trended negatively throughout the year. Historically, such pessimism has spelled trouble for incumbent parties, and this trend appears to be repeating as the New Patriotic Party (NPP) struggles to reverse public perceptions.
Candidate Favorability: A Mixed Picture
On candidate favorability, Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia of the NPP is viewed favorably by 47% of respondents, slightly ahead of Former President John Dramani Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), who holds a 46% favorability rating. However, deeper analysis reveals a more nuanced picture.
Former President Mahama enjoys broader support among key voter demographics, with an impressive 52.03% viewing him positively compared to 45.7% for Dr. Bawumia. Additionally, Professor Jane Naana Opoku-Agyemang, Mahama’s running mate, is viewed more favorably than Dr. Matthew Opoku Prempeh, Bawumia’s vice-presidential partner.
Party Popularity: Neck and Neck
The two major political parties, the NDC and NPP, are also in a close contest. The NDC holds a slight edge, with 50.8% of respondents expressing a favorable view of the party, compared to 45.1% for the NPP. Among independent voters, who are likely to be the deciding factor in this election, the NDC’s appeal appears stronger.
A Difficult Path for the Incumbents
President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo’s performance and the prevailing economic challenges have created a challenging environment for the NPP. While Dr. Bawumia’s campaign has gained momentum over the past three months, his inability to secure a decisive advantage among independents could prove costly.
The opposition NDC, on the other hand, has benefited from public dissatisfaction with the economy and the desire for change. Polling data indicates that a coalition of smaller parties, including the People’s National Convention (PNC) and Ghana Freedom Party (GFP), has aligned with the NDC, further boosting its chances.
Election 2024: A Close Finish Expected
As Ghanaians prepare to cast their ballots, the stage is set for a tightly contested election. The NDC’s former president, John Dramani Mahama, is projected to emerge victorious with 52.03% of the vote, compared to Dr. Bawumia’s 44.7%
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