Global InfoAnalytics reports Mahama at 51.1% in election 2024 with Bawumia at 37.3%

As the December 2024 elections approach, a recent poll by Global InfoAnalytics shows John Dramani Mahama (JDM) of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) holding a significant lead over Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia (DMB) of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP).

The poll indicates that Mahama is securing 51.1% of committed voters, while Bawumia trails at 37.3%. Independent candidates Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen (AKK) and Nana Kwame Bediako (NKB) capture 4.1% and 6.2% of the vote, respectively, with other candidates accounting for 1.3% of the electorate.

In an unweighted likely voters model, Mahama still maintains his lead with 49.3% support compared to Bawumia’s 35.9%. The survey also highlights a concerning trend of voter apathy within the NPP, as 16% of potential non-voters identify as supporters of the ruling party, while only 3% of NDC supporters are in this category.

Floating voters and those who declined to disclose their party affiliation make up 38% and 39% of non-voters, respectively, signaling a critical challenge for the NPP. Among floating voters, Mahama holds a commanding 31-point lead over Bawumia (54% to 23%), and he also leads by 18 points among those who did not disclose their party affiliations.

Mahama has made significant gains among first-time voters, with a 46% to 38% advantage over Bawumia—a notable improvement from the July 2024 poll where the two candidates were tied. Conversely, Bawumia has seen a decline in support from Muslim voters, a key demographic for his campaign, losing nearly 4% since July.

The poll further reveals that 70% of those who supported President Nana Akufo-Addo in 2020 remain loyal to Bawumia, but 19% have shifted their support to Mahama. In critical regions like Greater Accra and Central, 20% and 37% of 2020 NPP voters, respectively, have switched to Mahama. Regionally, Mahama now leads in 12 regions, including Bono, while Bawumia is ahead in the Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo, and North East regions.

The emergence of independent candidates Nana Kwame Bediako and Alan Kyerematen is complicating Bawumia’s standing, particularly in the Eastern and Ashanti regions. In Ashanti, where the NPP is aiming for 85% support, Bawumia currently has 66%, while Mahama garners 22%, and Bediako and Kyerematen secure 7% and 4%, respectively. This fragmentation of support poses a potential challenge for the ruling party as it prepares for the elections.

The poll also identifies key issues influencing voter sentiment, with the economy, jobs, and education being the primary concerns. A significant 70% of respondents view the economy as their top priority, followed by jobs (62%) and education (48%).

Additionally, 62% of voters believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, with discontent especially high among NDC voters (88%), floating voters (74%), and supporters of other parties (76%). In contrast, 64% of NPP supporters feel the country is on the right track.