Bawumia Predicts Shift to Intra-African Trade Amid Rising Global Tariffs

Ghana’s former Vice President, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, has warned that a wave of global protectionism — particularly steep tariff hikes by the United States — is likely to reshape Africa’s trade dynamics, pushing the continent toward self-sufficiency and regional integration.

Speaking at the International Democrat Union (IDU) Forum, Dr. Bawumia highlighted the impact of recent U.S. tariff increases, describing them as the most significant in nearly a century. “The US has increased its average tariff rate from about 2.4% to 10% — the largest increase since 1943. The impact of this will not be insignificant,” he said.

Although Africa’s direct trade exposure to the U.S. is relatively modest — accounting for 6.5% of exports and 4.4% of imports — Dr. Bawumia pointed out that some countries are more vulnerable than others. He cited Lesotho, which exports about 50% of its goods, mainly textiles, to the U.S. under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). He warned that such preferential access is at risk: “AGOA is essentially going to collapse under these tariffs.”

Dr. Bawumia believes the changing global trade landscape will accelerate Africa’s drive for economic independence. “What you’re going to see in Africa, as you’re seeing across the world, is more clamour for self-reliance. And you’re going to see more political space being created for intra-African trade as a way of dealing with this,” he said.

The former Vice President’s comments come at a time when the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is gaining traction, with countries seeking to strengthen internal markets in response to global economic volatility.