Regional breakdown: gains and losses for NDC and NPP in the 2024 elections

The 2024 Ghanaian presidential elections revealed a shifting political environment as the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) competed fiercely. The statistics demonstrate that both parties have made major regional gains and losses since the 2020 elections. While the NPP had significant declines in its traditional strongholds and battleground regions, the NDC recorded modest overall gains, with key improvements in specific regions.

Historical Context of Ghana’s Electoral Trends

Ghana's Fourth Republic, which began in 1992, has seen the NPP and NDC emerge as the two main political parties. The NPP has always fared well in the Ashanti and Eastern Regions, which are sometimes described as the country's "political backbone," while the NDC maintains its dominance in the Volta Region and sections of the Northern Belt. Swing regions including Greater Accra, Central, and Western frequently determine election results.

In the 2020 elections, Nana Akufo-Addo's NPP won with a strong showing in urban and traditional stronghold regions. However, the NPP suffered a significant decline in the 2024 election under Mahamudu Bawumia's leadership, while the NDC, under by former President John Dramani Mahama, strengthened its foundation and improved in important areas.

NPP’s Declines: A Major Shift in Strongholds

The NPP experienced significant setbacks across regions, particularly in its core areas and swing regions:

Greater Accra Region

The NPP’s most significant loss came in Greater Accra, where its votes dropped by a staggering 46%. Nana Akufo-Addo’s 1,253,179 votes in 2020 fell sharply to 681,535 for Mahamudu Bawumia. Greater Accra, known for its diverse and urbanised electorate, has historically been a swing region but increasingly leaned toward the NDC, a trend that intensified in 2024.

Central Region

A traditional swing region, Central delivered a 38% decline for the NPP. Votes plummeted from 613,804 in 2020 to 382,749. This outcome indicates a loss of confidence in the ruling party, as the NDC capitalized on voter discontent and historical ties to the region.

Ashanti Region

Even in its stronghold, the NPP saw a 24% decline in the Ashanti Region, with votes falling from 1,795,824 in 2020 to 1,366,800. This decline signals voter apathy and potential dissatisfaction within the party’s core base. While the NPP still dominated the region, the significant reduction raises concerns for its future electoral strategies.

Other notable declines for the NPP include the Volta Region (-44%), Western Region (-37%), and Eastern Region (-34%), highlighting a nationwide erosion of support.

NDC’s Gains: A Steady Comeback

The NDC capitalized on the NPP’s losses, particularly in regions where voter turnout and support increased:

Northern Region

The NDC recorded its most significant gain in the Northern Region, where Mahama’s votes increased by 11%, rising from 476,550 in 2020 to 529,456 in 2024. This solidifies the Northern Region as a critical stronghold for the NDC, aided by Mahama’s roots and the party’s targeted campaigns.

Ahafo Region

In the smaller but competitive Ahafo Region, the NDC increased its votes by 12%, moving from 116,485 to 130,106. This growth highlights the NDC’s ability to make gains in regions where the NPP previously held a significant advantage.

Bono Region

The NDC posted a notable 16% increase in the Bono Region, rising from 203,392 votes in 2020 to 235,681 in 2024. The NDC’s success here underscores its strategy of regaining support in swing regions.

Additional gains were observed in Western North (+3%) and Upper West (+2%), signaling modest improvements across key regions.

NDC’s Setback: Savannah Region

Despite its overall gains, the NDC suffered a notable setback in the Savannah Region, where Mahama’s votes declined by 7%, from 144,244 to 134,563. As Mahama’s home region, this result may reflect dissatisfaction with the NDC’s local performance or campaign efforts.

National Overview: A Tale of Contrasting Fortunes

At the national level, the NPP’s total vote count dropped by 30.8%, falling from 6,730,587 in 2020 to 4,657,304 in 2024. The NDC, on the other hand, achieved a modest national increase of 1.9%, rising from 6,213,182 votes to 6,328,397.

Overall trends point to widespread voter unhappiness with the NPP, particularly in metropolitan areas and swing regions. While the NDC achieved gains, they were confined and minor, emphasizing the need for both parties to rethink their strategy ahead of future elections.

Key Takeaways

NPP’s Losses: Greater Accra (-46%), Volta (-44%), and Central (-38%) Regions mark the party’s most severe setbacks.

NDC’s Gains: The party’s strongest improvements came in the Northern (+11%), Ahafo (+12%), and Bono (+16%) Regions.

Savannah Decline: The NDC’s 7% decline in Savannah stands out as a key challenge despite its overall gains.

Conclusion

The 2024 elections changed Ghana's regional political map, with the NPP experiencing historic declines in key regions and the NDC making gradual advances. As both parties consider the results, it is apparent that voter preferences, urban trends, and regional dynamics will continue to shape Ghana's political future. The findings highlight an increasing necessity for both parties to interact intimately with voters in both traditional strongholds and swing regions in order to remain competitive in the coming years.

Source: citinewsroom.com