EDITORIAL: Opinion polls key to political discourse

Today, like yesterday, the Daily Dispatch, publishes the results of its national poll, asking potential delegates in the National Patriotic Party which of the aspirants they will be voting for as presidential flagbearer. A year away from the national delegates conference, which is expected to take place in the final months of 2007, the newspaper cites Alan Kyerematen, Minister of Trade & Industry, as the leading candidate with 21.2 percent of the vote, 37. He is followed by the current Vice President, Alhaji Aliu Mahama, 35, then the Foreign Minister, Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo, 34 and Hackman Owusu-Agyemang with 23.

At least one potential delegate in 174 of the nation's 230 constituencies took part in the Daily Dispatch survey. There shall be about than 2,500 delegates in all, with some moves to at least double the number still popular in some NPP quarters.

Several legitimate questions regarding the methodology employed for this nationwide poll may be posed. Why was the research carried out between the months of July and October, for example, when the field of contestants for the flagbearer race was altering and expanding so rapidly during that time; and why do the results not reflect these changing ideas and influences? Opinion polls are usually carried out over a much shorter period of time - they present an idea and a snapshot of the thinking of a particular group or population. However, it is unlikely that the thinking amongst NPP executives remained static during this three-month period.

In the last few months, there has been an explosion of ambition within the ruling party; with 16 candidates now intending to stand for the flagbearer contest, at our latest count. The information we have is that some candidates, such as Alan Kyerematen, Defence Minister Kwame Addo-Kufuor, Kofi Apraku, former NEPAD Minister and Yaw Osafo-Maafo, the former Minister of Education, Science & Sports, long ago declared their candidature at least, by putting up structures early. Some such as Hackman Owusu-Agyemang, Frimpong Boateng and Mike Oquaye really got going after the new year. Some, such as Nana Akufo-Addo, started personal ground campaigning mid-way through the survey period, in August; and others, such as Papa Owusu-Ankomah, now at Education, and Dan Botwe have only just entered, at the tail end of the poll.

An opinion poll which showed the changing reactions within the party, and the trend of support for each candidate as new runners enter the field, would have been a more accurate portrayal of a very eventful period for the party.

A series of polls, by which people can judge the impact of new entrants to the race and the gearing-up of pre-election campaigns, would have served as a more useful yardstick for politicians, party members and the public to judge the progress of the competition.

The newspaper's decision to withhold the publishing of the poll results until two months after the survey ended is also surprising – as polls are intended to act as a mirror of a society or electorate’s current, not past, thinking. A lot could have changed in that period and probably has.

Nonetheless, The Statesman welcomes the proactive stance taken by the Daily Dispatch, and its Managing Editor Ben Ephson, in conducting this poll. A scientifically-reached reflection of political opinion in this country is exactly what our democracy needs, particularly as a counter-balance to the distortion of propaganda which still too often colours the outcome and the perception of our politics. With a 'political media’, perceived to be often funded by politicians, it can be difficult to see through the paid-for sheen of front page stories about who’s-beating-who on the campaign tours to see where the support really lies.

We believe Mr Ephson, a political commentator and analyst as well as a journalist, has made the first important step with this opinion poll. Today, The Statesman commends him – and offers a few pointers of our own about how the notion of opinion poll testing can be expanded and developed in Ghana. Countries elsewhere in the world have already developed and deployed opinion polls as a pivotal cog in their political and democratic apparatus. Scientific samples of a group or population can be used to test, more or less accurately, opinion on a given issue. How is the war on Iraq effecting the popularity of President Bush? for example. Monthly opinion polls carried out nationwide tell us. Should the UK join the Euro, the universal currency across much of the European Union, which the British Government has so far neglected to enter? Regular opinion polls around the country are a useful way of informing Government policy on this.

In Ghana, opinion polls must also be developed in this way. The Daily Dispatch’s polls show how NPP delegates might vote in the upcoming elections – but this is just the first tiny step of what opinion polls might do for this country. The pollsters could return periodically, to find out how the various presidential campaigns are affecting support within the party. Rank-and-file party members could also be quizzed – after all, delegates are supposed to reflect the views of their constituents. Opinions of the general public, too, might be sought – after all, the NPP is looking to elect a candidate who can win a general election.

The National Democratic Congress might also benefit from the insight of some accurate opinion polls – and The Statesman looks forward to the Dispatch’s promised poll results on the opposition party. In the final few weeks before the party’s decisive delegates’ conference, where its own presidential flagbearer for 2008 will be named, what is the opinion on the ground?

Issues of national debate, too, might be enhanced and enriched by poll samples. The recent case of Richard Anane the now-dismissed Roads Transport Minister, is an apt example: what did the public think should have been done? The current debate over the re-denomination of the cedi is another case where parliamentary debate and decision making may have been informed by opinion polls. Government direction should not be dictated by the electorate, of course – and in many cases, experts and advisers may carry a far heavier weight than the less-well-informed public, but a greater forum for consensus opinion might help Government to build a greater rapport with its people, it might help businesses and entrepreneurs to better understand their markets, it might help decision makers to identify problems and act on them.

Opinion polls are not 100 percent reliable, of course; even the most comprehensive and ‘scientific’ poll leaves room for error. Countries such as the UK and the US have developed tens of specialised organisations, with intricate national networks and technology to map out public opinion as accurately as possible. Ghana needs to adopt some of these strategies and infrastructures if we are to develop our own reliable information-gathering facilities; and Government needs to recognise the need for these democratic tools – independently run, unpartisan and unbiased – by facilitating the growth of these systems.

There are cases where opinion polls have been seen to adversely affect politics – to steer, rather than reflect, electoral outcomes. The overwhelming popularity of a particular candidate as shown in an opinion poll, for example, may persuade stray opposition candidates to band together to win. There is also a large margin of error in any sample survey, and there is a danger in granting too much weight to their results.

Nonetheless, the opinion poll is something Ghana has so far neglected to embrace – a tool with the potential to open up our democracy still further, and to connect a people with their Government. The Statesman congratulates Ben Ephson for pioneering it – and calls on others to do likewise.