John Maham Quits Race

*More moderates adopt ‘wait and see’ attitude
*JJ to be forced to lie low Information reaching The Statesman indicates that John Mahama, the Member of Parliament for Bole-Bamboi and one of the most affable politicians in the country, is not likely to contest for the position of presidential candidate for the National Democratic Congress, as highly expected.

This may come across as a great disappointment to many Ghanaians as Mr Mahama's name has been linked to the NDC running ticket even before the 2004 general elections. Then, he was widely tipped to be picked as John Evans Atta-Mills' running mate.

However, the former Vice President took the bizarre decision in 2004 of approaching the leadership of the party with two names: Messrs John Mahama and Mohammed Mumuni.

While the Bole-Bamboi MP was taken for granted as the preferred running mate of Prof Mills, the NDC leadership used the opportunity granted to them by their presidential candidate at the time to instead endorse the preferred candidate of former President Jerry John Rawlings, the MP for Kumbungu. In the final analysis, Alhaji Mumuni's contribution to Mills' ticket is considered to be negligible.

This has emboldened a silent majority in the party, essentially made up of moderates, who believe they have the clout to stand up to “the forces of intimidation in the party;” they have sent signals they would be putting “a gun” per se “to the head of Jerry John Rawlings,” Founder of the NDC on the eve of the party's congress, warning him to stay “unconnected and uncommitted to any particular candidate.”

This, they say, is because manoeuvrings by the former President since the NDC guidelines on the campaign for a presidential candidate were launched “do not give any real comfort that our founder intends to stick by it.”

According to our sources within the very upper echelons of the opposition party, it is becoming increasingly clear that Mr Rawlings is determined to see his will be done. There are, however, strong doubts about his preferred choice being that of the rank and file of the party, as well.

Our straw surveys within the NDC show that the thrice-defeated candidate, John Evans Atta-Mills, is by far the strongest candidate, and he is likely to win the NDC presidential primary by as much as 60 percent of the votes, against candidates such as Eddie Annan and Ekow Spio Garbrah. The NDC presidential primary will be held at the end of the year, either in November or December. According to the NDC constitution, a presidential candidate shall be nominated not later than two years before the next general elections.

The race is definitely on, with money-man Eddie Annan threatening to withhold funding if he does not get the nod.

Mrs Konadu Agyemang Rawlings is widely tipped to be lurking around the candidature seams ready to spring a predictable surprise and throw her hat into the ring by August. The calculation is that by entering the competition her pending criminal trial could take for the Kufuor administration the embarrassing form that Dr Kizza Besigye's trial caused to the Yoweri Museveni administration in Uganda earlier this year.

Mr Mahama, who has told close friends that he does not intend to satisfy the obvious by contesting at the NDC primary, is arguably the most loved NDC politician in the country.

However, oddly, he does not enjoy the same admiration in his own party. Some die-hard party activists see him as “not the kind of man who will die for the party.”

He is seen as too soft and always couching his criticism of the ruling party in decent and constructive language. Ironically, it is this trait, besides his calm looks and demeanour, which has endeared him to the country at large. Though, the NDC appears to prefer the bare-knuckle brawler image that Rawlings represents, they have stuck with the cool former law lecturer Prof Mills since 2000.

When The Statesman contacted him yesterday, Mr Mahama said he was yet to take an absolute decision whether or not to contest. He is still known to have some formidable campaign machinery in place.

The likely outcome is Mr Mahama as the preferred running mate for either Prof Mills or Dr Spio Garbrah, if any of the two men win.

Mr Mahama is said not to have the stomach to fight against Mr Rawlings for a position that should be otherwise democratically made by party delegates. But there are some in the party leadership who are determined to see the wishes of the majority not to be unduly influenced by the wishes of the founder. Another complaint is that the NDC was not doing enough to “utilise the solid points of the ex-President to build the structures of the party in a democratic manner,” a senior source revealed. “A formal letter would be written to the Founder, officially requesting him to stay neutral in the game,” the source added, and with a terse warning: “If he listens and complies, then a peaceful congress would be held, and the outcome acceptable to everybody.

“If the ex-President, however, fails to heed the cry of the well-intentioned, silent majority in the NDC, all Hell would break loose, and that one…the party would have none to blame except the Mafia and their old man. The resignations and defections would then continue, until his party dies off, leaving himself and their cronies to run it.”

One other insider from academia observes, “The recent wave of defections that hit the party is basically because of this one element of intimidation and a few people in the party pretending they so loved Rawlings that none should go near him and pollute his vision for the party…that unless we used force and intimidation…and so long as the vision and objectives of the party are okay…all should fall in line, without allowing for debate.”