Mahama Cruising To Victory With 54%

... Devtrox Poll Pegs Him @ 53.8%

…. Akufo Addo Trails @ 43%

…. Abu Sakara, Kwesi Nduom,

Ayariga and the Rest to Share 3%

The Crystal Clear Lens Political Desk report

There

is a shocking revelation from the latest polls conducted by a political

communication think-tank, DEVTROX, which points at President John Dramani

Mahama cruising to a first round victory with a comfortable 54%. The pollster’s

margin of error is pegged at +/- 1.5%, a prediction which indicates that even

in the worst scenario, the NDC candidate is still assured of a ‘one‘touch

victory’.

As the polls reveal, if the margin of

error is applied downwards, the President will still pick 52.3% of the total

votes to be cast in this Friday’s national elections. The results sighted by

our investigative team, showed that a total number of 4,980 potential voters

were sampled in all the ten regions with the distribution of the rural and

urban voters even.

DEVTROX posited that it used the

Electoral Commission figures on the voter roll for the survey. In applying

scientific research methodology, the think-tank statistically derived its

percentages of potential voters per region using the percentage of voters. For

example in the Ashanti Region, the percentage of voters is pegged at 18.3%

while that of Greater-Accra is 19.3% with Central and Upper West at 8.7% and

2.9%.

The pollster therefore, used simple

quantitative analysis of the national figure of 4,980 of potential voters as

its sample and from which the breakdown reads as follows: Ashanti 915,

Greater-Accra 965, Central Region 435 and Upper West 140 among others. The

measuring instrument deployed was aimed at achieving both reliability and

validity of the results of the survey.

According to the pollster, the results

of this survey with a margin of error of +/- 1.5%, has a very high confidence

level. For the purposes of breaking down

this complex phenomenon of polls and margin of error, we wish to explain that a

margin of error in poll data is the statistical proposition of the likely

difference which might occur in the results due to the inability of the survey

to interview the entire universe (that is, the total voting population of 14

million eligible voters).

In interpreting the poll results, the

pollster argued that it also took into consideration other important components

and factors such as ‘Coverage Error’, and ‘Measurement Error’.

Some

of the questions the team of research assistants asked in the field ranged from

the Economy, the personality characteristics of the candidates, who they can

trust to deliver on promises and the track-record of the candidates. The

results of these wide range of interrogating the personal preferences and an

aggregation of these places John Mahama in pole position to win.

DEVTROX projects a voter turnout of

around 80% which translates into about 11 million voters casting the

ballot. Using statistical variables and

the solid findings from the field it projects a region-by-region outlook for

the NDC candidate as follows:

REGION PERCENTAGE OF VOTES TO BE WON

CENTRAL 57%

WESTERN 50%

BRONG-AHAFO 50%

GREATER-ACCRA 54%

VOLTA 87%

UPPER EAST 70%

EASTERN 49%

NORTHERN 65%

ASHANTI 31%

UPPER WEST 70%