NDC most likely to win 2024 general elections – Fitch predicts

A UK-based research firm, Fitch Solutions, has projected that the opposition National Democracy Congress is most likely to win the 2024 general elections.

According to the latest assessment by Fitch on June 2, 2023, titled “Positive Shift In Ghana's Political Risk Profile Following IMF Programme Approval,” it said the projection comes after the economic hardships Ghanaians have had to face under the current administration led by President Akufo-Addo.

Fitch also added that the current government’s approach to tackling corruption remains a source of worry for Ghanaians.

It said: "Turning to the 2024 general election, we believe that the NDC is most likely to win. The rapid deterioration of economic conditions in 2022 and slow progress in the fight against perceived corruption – in a July 2022 Afrobarometer study, 85.0% of Ghanaians believed the government was doing a poor job in tackling corruption - will exacerbate anti-incumbency sentiment among the electorate."

“In addition, the IMF has voiced concerns over President Nana Akufo-Addo’s flagship Free Senior High School programme (introduced in 2017), labelling it as 'poorly targeted'. Potential modifications to the programme in order to rein in spending could weaken the NPP’s campaign agenda, increasing the chances of an NDC win,” parts of the assessment read.

However, Fitch asserted that the likely change in government will not have any effects on the country’s IMF programme since the NDC itself has sought assistance at the Fund during its tenure.

“Despite our view that a government change is likely after the 2024 general election, we believe that risks to Ghana’s IMF programme are limited.

Previous NDC governments have requested IMF loans (Ghana’s 2015-2019 IMF programme was started under an NDC government) and current NDC leadership has expressed support for Ghana’s re-engagement with the IMF,” it noted.

Fitch, therefore, noted that given the limited risks to the IMF programme, we have revised Ghana’s 'policy continuity' score in our STPRI to 70.0 out of 100, from 62.5 previously.

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