Nana Will Whip Mills If…

Latest opinion poll results released by the market research firm, Synovate, indicate that if elections were held today, the Presidential Candidate of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo would beat President John Evans Atta Mills.

The poll, carried out in the month of September, showed the NPP flagbearer leading with 48% support in the four swing regions of Greater Accra, Central, Western and Brong Ahafo in contrast to 41% for the President. The Convention People’s Party (CPP) and the People’s National Convention (PNC) candidates, Dr. Paa Kwesi Nduom and Dr. Edward Nasigri Mahama polled 5% and 1% respectively.

Two percent of respondents did not tell who they would vote for if elections were held today whilst 3% either refused to answer or said they did not know.

With the exception of the Greater Accra region where Professor Mills polled 46% compared to Nana Addo’s 37%, the opposition leader had a commanding lead over the incumbent President in the Western, Central and Brong Ahafo regions which are known to determine the fate who of gets to lead the country as President in any given election.

Eight percent of those sampled in the Greater Accra region did not know who they would vote for if elections were held.

The poll also showed mixed results for the assumed presidential candidates of the two political parties with representation in Parliament, CPP and PNC.

Dr Nduom had six percent and Dr Mahama could not even secure a single percentage point in September.

In the Central region, latest figures from the month of September 2011 indicated that Nana Akufo-Addo had a 4% lead over Mills though Mills was leading with the same margin in May 2011 when the same poll was conducted.

According to the Synovate figures, 46% of the respondents indicated that they would vote for Nana Addo if elections were held at the time while 42% preferred President Mills.

Dr Nduom, another indigene of the Central region managed to get 12% respondents rooting for him from 14% in April and 9% in May.

PNC’s assumed candidate, Dr Mahama, failed to make an impression in that region.

Also in the Brong Ahafo region, the results showed that Nana Addo had a commanding lead over Mills with a massive 24% margin.

The NPP candidate received 56% support in the region, compared to Mills’s 32%.

Nana Addo’s support had increased from 36% in April through 51% in May to the current 56% figure while the sitting President’s support had fallen from a peak of 35% in May to 32 currently.

The other two candidates factored in the polls received minimal support in the region with each polling an abysmal 1%.

More discouraging is the fact that Dr Nduom dropped from 17% in April to the current figure of 1%.

Two percent of those sampled refused to indicate their choice for the Presidency in the Region.

The Western region showed the highest support and margin for the opposition leader according to the September polls as he polled 59% in contrast to Mills’s 34%.

However, in the Western region, Dr Nduom secured 7% of the people’s support while Dr Mahama failed to show a mark.

The four swing regions have, to all intents and purposes, determined every single election since 1992.

In the 1992 and 1996 general elections, then NDC Candidate Jerry Rawlings won all of the four regions while the reverse happened in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections when the then NPP Presidential candidate, John Kufuor, also won all those regions to become president.

In the 2008 general elections, while Prof. Mills won in the Central and the Greater Accra regions in the first round, Nana Addo won in the Western and Brong Ahafo Regions.

Candidate Mills won all four swing regions in the run-off to secure the presidency.

The remaining six regions are known to always tow the lines of one or the other party with the Northern, Upper West, Upper East and Volta being strongholds of the NDC while the Eastern and Ashanti regions are also known strongholds of NPP.

Synovate Ghana, a subsidiary of Synovate International, headquartered in London, used as its target population, the general public aged 18years and above and living in Ghana.

The sample frame of the poll was based on the 2000 Ghana Housing and Population census data as the 2010 results are provisional and therefore could not be used.

In all, 1,723 registered voters were polled in the four regions concerned using the household interviews.