Veteran journalist and Managing Editor of the Insight newspaper, Kwesi Pratt Jnr, has questioned the credibility of election polls in Ghana, arguing that many of them fall far short of reality.
Pratt criticised a well-known academic, Prof Smart Sarpong, a Senior Researcher at Kumasi Technical University (KTU), over his 2024 election survey which predicted victory for Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, the 2024 flagbearer of the New Patriotic Party (NPP).
According to Pratt, he had warned the professor before the release of the poll, but Prof Sarpong insisted that his research was scientific. However, Pratt noted that the actual election results proved otherwise.
“There was a professor who came and said he had done research and was going to launch it. I warned him but he didn’t listen and went ahead. After the election, the reality of his prediction was completely different; the results were far from what he projected,” Pratt stated during a panel discussion on Peace FM's Kokrokoo on January 29, 2026.
He further mocked the professor, saying, “A whole professor…in the olden days when you heard of a professor, it meant the person was extremely intelligent. But if you are a professor and your poll flops, then… For me, I am not that interested in such polls.”
Pratt emphasised that the polls were far removed from the actual outcome of the elections
The survey by Prof Smart Sarpong, released on November 23, 2024, projected that NPP’s Dr Mahamudu Bawumia would secure about 49.1% of the total votes cast.
His closest contender, now President John Dramani Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), was placed second with 45.8%.
The study further suggested that the leader of the New Force Movement, Nana Kwame Bediako, would come third with 2.2%, while the Movement for Change leader, Alan Kyerematen, would place fourth with 1.2%.
“As of November 16, 2024 (four weeks to the elections), NPP’s Dr Mahamudu Bawumia was in the lead with 49.1%, followed by NDC’s John Mahama with 45.8%, Nana Kwame Bediako with 2.2% and Alan Kyerematen with 1.2%.
All other candidates combined obtained 1.7%. It is clear from this report that the 2024 elections could be won in the first round by only one of the two leading political parties, with the NPP having a higher chance of clinching victory,” excerpts of the study read.
Prof Smart Sarpong hits back at critics as he defends polls predicting Bawumia win
Meanwhile, after the 2024 general elections, John Dramani Mahama secured victory with 6,591,790 votes, representing 56.42% of the total votes cast.
He defeated his closest contender, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia who received 4,877,611 votes representing 41.75 percent.
Nana Kwame Bediako, popularly known as Cheddar, the leader of the New Force Party, emerged as the leading candidate among the smaller parties, garnering 88,944 votes, or 0.76% of the total.
AM
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