Africa's growth to slow to 4.2% in 2026 amid Middle East conflict – IMF

Africa’s growth is expected to slow to 4.2 percent in 2026 as conflict in the Middle East pushes energy costs higher and revives inflation risks, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth is projected to ease from 4.5 percent in 2025 to 4.3 per cent in 2026, while North Africa’s growth is forecast to slip to 4.1 percent over the same period. Both remain above the global growth forecast of 3.1 percent for 2026.

The development was noted at the African Consultative Group Meeting with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva at the ongoing 2026 IMF/World Bank Group Spring Meetings in Washington.

The meeting was co-chaired by Seedy Keita, Chairman of the African Caucus and Minister of Finance and Economic Affairs of The Gambia, and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.

The two sides acknowledged that Africa had entered 2026 on the back of hard-won stabilisation gains following a strong 2025, but said those gains were now under threat from spillover effects of the Middle East conflict, despite the recently announced ceasefire.

They noted that with a relatively swift normalisation following the ceasefire, global growth was projected to slow modestly to 3.1 percent in 2026 and recover to 3.2 percent in 2027, but warned that a prolonged conflict would severely impact Africa’s growth outlook.

Ministers, governors, and the IMF said the Middle East conflict is worsening Africa’s economic outlook through inflation, food shortages, and social tensions, alongside pre-existing structural vulnerabilities such as high debt and limited financing options.

On policy response, the African Consultative Group said the near-term priority for policymakers must be to anchor inflation expectations and protect vulnerable populations through targeted and time-bound fiscal support.

They advised oil-exporting countries to save temporary windfalls and rebuild buffers, while oil-importing countries were urged to mobilise domestic revenues, improve spending efficiency, and strengthen public financial management.

Countries were also encouraged to accelerate reforms to drive growth and diversification, deepen regional integration and domestic financial markets, and invest in power and digital infrastructure to harness artificial intelligence (AI) safely and productively.

The African Consultative Group called on the IMF to enhance its Comprehensive Surveillance Review, ensure country-specific rather than generic policy advice, and strengthen assessment of economic imbalances and cross-border spillovers.

They also urged the Fund to improve its capacity to manage shocks and streamline surveillance activities for greater impact.

In response, the IMF reaffirmed its commitment to African member countries, saying it would continue working closely with them to support sound economic policy design and implementation.

The Fund also reiterated its support for mobilising international financing, strengthening economic resilience, and advancing the continent’s development goals in an increasingly complex global environment.