Fuel prices pose risk to Ghana's 2026 inflation outlook - Analyst

Finance and tax analyst, Nelson Cudjoe Kuagbedzi has expressed concern over Ghana’s inflation outlook for 2026, warning that although it currently aligns with policy targets, it remains vulnerable to mounting global pressures, particularly rising fuel costs.

“This is not far-fetched because of the vulnerabilities of emerging markets to global shocks and disruptions,” he said, noting the country’s exposure to external economic forces.

His concerns reflect broader global trends.

A recent World Bank report projects inflation in emerging economies to rise to 5.1% in 2026 amid persistent global uncertainties and supply-side constraints.

Speaking on Channel One TV on Monday, May 4, 2026, he said Ghana’s 2026 budget projects end-year inflation at around 8%, within the Bank of Ghana’s medium-term target band of 8% ± 2%, urging that this outlook could quickly shift if global supply chains face persistent disruptions.

According to him, rising fuel prices driven by geopolitical tensions are a key risk to price stability. While the government has offered temporary relief at the pumps, he stressed that such measures may not hold if external conditions worsen.

Cedi's 41% gain reflects mean reversion, not overvaluation - BoG

“Even though the government has given us four weeks’ relief in terms of price reduction, to the extent that geopolitical tensions continue to wage on, we expect prices to shoot up at the pump and that will engender some level of inflationary pressures,” he cautioned.

He noted that keeping inflation within single digits will depend not only on domestic policy discipline but also on how global economic tensions evolve in the months ahead.

He further appealed to the Bank of Ghana to maintain a tight monetary policy stance, while urging government to pursue disciplined fiscal management, noting that managing these risks will require strong coordination between monetary and fiscal authorities.

SO/MA

Guinea Fowl Bazaar aims to promote unity and showcase Northern Ghana – Albert Akuk