Part II: The Black Stars' AFCON Q-Finals Dilemma

Part II: Ghana Black Stars Clarification of AFCON Q-Finals Qualification

By Michael Yereku


Football fans around the world supporting Ghana Black Stars are engaging in a heated debate about if the mighty Black Stars have qualified to the quarter finals of the ongoing African Cup of Nations tournament in Gabon and Equatorial Guinea or not.


Although the debate will be resolved when Kwame Nkrumah’s Black Stars battle Ahmed Sekou Toure’s Guinea on Wednesday in Franceville, Gabon, the answer to the qualification question at this moment is NO, GHANA HAS NOT QUALIFIED TO THE Q-FINALS!!! Why? Let’s examine CAF’s rule 72.


According to CAF's regulations, Article 72, in the event where two or more teams are tied on points after the conclusion of the group matches, the ranking of the teams shall be established according to the following criteria:


72.1. Greater number of points obtained in the matches between the teams in question; [Here results of Botswana games are dropped]. 72.2. The best goal difference in the matches between the teams; [Here results of Botswana games are dropped]. 72.3. Greater number of goals scored in the group matches between the teams concerned; [Here the results of Botswana games are dropped]. 72.4. Goal difference in all group matches; [Here results from the Botswana matches become relevant]. 72.5. Greatest number of goals scored in all the group matches; [Here Botswana games become relevant]. 72.6. Fair Play points system taking into account the number of yellow and red cards; [No explanation needed]. 72.7. Drawing of lots by CAF Organizing Committee [Lottery].


Rules 72.1, 72.2 and 72.3 drop results against Botswana assuming Mali defeats Botswana and God forbid Guinea beats the Black Stars on Wednesday for Ghana, Guinea and Mali to have the same number of points. If that were to happen, the rules just take into consideration results from games involving ONLY the three teams.

In such scenario, rule 72.1, which deals with head to head (“HTH”) “matches between the teams in question,” is not applicable since Mali defeated Guinea, Ghana outclassed Mali, and Guinea would have slipped by Ghana. HTH is neutralized because Ghana has a better HTH over Mali, Mali has HTH over Guinea and Guinea favorable HTH would have been better than Ghana. In this case, which two teams do you pick for the quarter finals?


With rule 72.1 or HTH not applicable, rule 72.2, which deals with goal difference (“GD”) in matches involving ONLY the three teams having the same number of points is the next regulation needed to separate the teams. Here is where in the worst case scenario, Ghana cannot concede more than 3 nil score line against Guinea.


A score like 4 nil in favor of Guinea on Wednesday coupled with Mali’s win over Botswana will send us home, no dispute about that!! Here, calculate the GD when the three teams Ghana, Guinea and Mali played each other and drop all results against Botswana.


Mali does not have any games against Ghana or Guinea so we now know where Mali stands with GD. Mali has (-1GD); that is Ghana scored 2 goals against Mali while Mali defeated Guinea by one goal to nil resulting in (-1GD).


Before playing Guinea on Wednesday, the Black Stars GD stands at (+2GD). This is because we beat Mali by that score. As a result, if Guinea put 4 goals past the Black Stars, our goal difference would drop to (-2GD). If you compare (-2GD) to Mali’s (-1GD), the Mali team would move on at Ghana’s expense.


The worst case scenario line is drawn at 3 goals to nil in favor of Guinea. If God forbid, Guinea defeat the Black Stars by 3 goals to nil, Ghana and Mali would have (-1GD) each. In this scenario, the Black Stars qualify be virtue of the goal scored rule involving the three teams concerned; that is Guinea would have 3 goals scored on Ghana, Ghana 2 goals on Mali and Mali one goal on Guinea. Guinea and Ghana would qualify taking only goals scored involving matches between only the three teams.

We faced the same dilemma during AFCON 2006 in Egypt, when our last group match against Zimbabwe, all Ghana needed was a win or a tie in order to use the HTH rule to make the quarter finals over Senegal. However, at that time, the worst happened. We folded and lost to the unheralded Zimbabwean team 4 goals to one. I believe that the lost at that time was the Black Stars worst defeat in AFCON history.


Regulation 72.3 which deals with goals scored (“GS”) involving games BETWEEN THE THREE TEAMS during the group phase will be used if GD does not end the stalemate. This is where if God forbid Guinea defeat us by 4 goals to nil, we will be on our way home with (-2GD) by considering the 2 goals Ghana scored against Mali. In sum, Guinea would have (+3GD) and (+4GS) advantage over Ghana. In this case, with HTH not applicable, Mali could slip in with better (-1GD) advantage over the Black Stars taking into consideration Mali’s one goal against Guinea and 2 goals conceded against Ghana. Regulations 72.4 to 72.7 are self explanatory if they are to be applied.


All these scenario analysis and debate will be put to rest when the mighty Black Stars defeat or tie Guinea on Wednesday so that the team can stay at its base in Franceville to prepare for the quarter finals against Tunisia on Super Bowl Sunday.


I believe that the above analysis clearly and unambiguously answers the Black Stars fans’ confusing about the AFCON quarter finals qualification dilemma.


Good luck to the Black Stars!! Victory is our mission!!