IMF will not suspend Ghana’s programme despite higher spending in 2024 election year – Fitch

A UK-based Research firm, Fitch Solutions, has projected the possibility of Ghana not being able to meet the targets set by the International Monetary Fund in 2024 as it is an election year.

According to Fitch, Ghana is likely to spend above its budget, however, this will not lead to a suspension of the $3 billion IMF programme.

In the latest assessment of Ghana on June 2, 2023, titled “Positive Shift in Ghana’s Political Risk Profile Following IMF Programme Approval”, Fitch said for the last 10 years, Ghana’s total expenditure as a share of GDP increased by an average of 3.0 percentage points during election years.

Fitch however added that it is very likely that the same may happen in 2024.

“Nonetheless, higher-than-budgeted expenditure is unlikely to lead to a suspension of the IMF programme. Indeed, when public expenditure surpassed budgetary allocations in 2016 (an election year), the IMF board approved waivers for non-observance of performance criteria and decided to extend the arrangement by one year,” parts of the assessment read.

Other economic indicators including inflation and depreciation have also been projected to see some losses as the fiscal slippage will lead to dwindling investor confidence.

The resultant effect of this will be an increase in social and economic unrest.

Fitch is of the belief that IMF assistance will improve economic conditions in Ghana and therefore limit risks to social stability over the coming quarters.

It noted that the approval and receipt of the first tranche of the $3 billion IMF loan have improved the country’s reserves which have allowed the country to meet its external financing needs.

“These developments have improved sentiment towards Ghanaian assets, with the cedi having strengthened by 8.0% in May [2023], which will reduce imported inflation over the coming months. Indeed, we believe that consumer price growth will remain on a downward trajectory through 2023 and 2024, easing pressure on household finances,” Fitch added.

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