Ethiopia, for a while was considered one of Africa’s hottest investment destinations
Ethiopia, for a while considered one of Africa’s hottest investment destinations, looks set to renege on its debts.
After last-ditch restructuring talks with a committee that represents holders of its $1 billion dollar bonds fell through, the government said it wasn’t in a position to make a $33-million interest payment that was due Monday.
If it doesn’t come up with the money before a 14-day grace period ends, Ethiopia will join the ranks of Ghana and Zambia on a list of African nations that have defaulted since the start of the pandemic.
For Ethiopia, as with the others, the economic carnage wrought by Covid-19 is only partly to blame. Its army fought a two-year civil war mainly in the northern Tigray region, and the government estimates it will cost $20 billion to rebuild infrastructure. That fighting ended just over a year ago, but a new conflict has since flared in the neighboring Amhara province.
The government aims to hold a call with investors this week, where it will propose plans for dealing with its eurobonds. If it presents the same outline that investors rejected last week, the proposition will in all likelihood fail.
Ethiopia is meanwhile struggling to close a deal with the International Monetary Fund for an economic program that will include emergency funding. That will also lay out how much debt relief Ethiopia needs from its creditors — both bondholders and official ones, such as China and the Paris Club of mostly developed countries.
History has shown the route to restructuring is long and full of false dawns.
Ghana and Zambia managed to win an IMF bailout, yet they’ve struggled to find common ground among a diverse group of creditors after months of tough negotiations.
That doesn’t bode well for Ethiopia’s prospects.
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