2012 Elections: Second Round Inevitable

. ... NDC Likely To Lose

Over the years, Ghanaians vote for a political Party in a certain pattern. Popularity of the Candidate, job creation, corruption, drugs, armed Robbery and how the party executives and ministers conduct themselves are also considered.

In 2000, there was runoff and NDC lost to NPP largely due to the following:

i. CHANGE OF CANDIDATE: NDC changed president J.J Rawlings (on Constitutional grounds) for Prof. Mills and since J.J’s Name was not on the ballot, Ghanaians did not vote for the new face on the ballot but voted for President J A Kufour who had contested President Rawlings and had his Name and face on the ballot papers in 1996. Then Candidate Kufour campaigned vigorously after he had lost to President J.J Rawlings in 1996 so he became popular in 2000.

ii. DIVISION IN THE PARTY: Mr. Goosie Tannoh and his group were not happy with the selection of the then Candidate, Professor Mills hence formation of the National Reform Party (NRP)

iii. CONDUCT OF APPOINTEES: Some MPs, Ministers, MCEs and party executives thought NDC was going to be in power forever. They were power drunk, corrupt, arrogant and thinking Ghanaians have no eyes to see and hear what was going on both public and in private.

iv. CONSTITUENCY PRIMARIES; most of the candidates were imposed on the constituents especially non performing sitting MPs.

v. CAMPAING MESSAGE; NDC campaigned for Continuity as if President Rawlings was the Candidate whiles NPP’s main message was ‘Positive Change’

vi. OTHER ISSUES: other issues that affected NDC then were,

*killing of women

*Huge sum of money got lost at Obed Asamoah’s house

*Government white paper issued to cover P.V. Obeng at CHRAJ

*Aveyime Rice project vrs Mrs Cotton

In 2008, there were runoffs and Ruling NPP Party lost to main contender NDC because of the ff;

i. CHANGE OF CANDIDATE: NPP changed president J.A Kufour (on Constitutional grounds) for Nana Addo and since J.A Kufour’s Name was not on the ballot, Ghanaians did not vote for the new face (Nana Addo) on the ballot but voted for President J.E A Mills who had contested with President J. A. Kufour and had his Name and face on the 2000 & 2004 ballot papers. Then Candidate Mills campaigned vigorously after he had lost to President Kufour in 2004 and became popular with ‘Asodwee hene’ slogan added to his Name

ii. CONDUCT OF APPOINTEES: Some MPs, Ministers, MCEs and party executives thought NDC was dead and NPP was going to be in power forever. They were power drunk, corrupt, arrogant and thinking they are well educated in the system and could take Ghanaians for granted.

iii. CONSTITUENCY PRIMARIES; most of the candidates were imposed on the constituents especially non performing sitting MPs which compelled other contestants to go independent.

iv. CAMPAING MESSAGE; when Prof. Mills was going house to house with ‘I care for you’ and ‘better Ghana Agenda slogans,’ the ruling party NPP was doing street jam with Musicians singing and dancing Kangaroo dance.

v. OTHER ISSUES: other issues that affected NPP were;

*Hotel waawaa

*Kickbacks at Castle (made public by Haruna Esseku)

*GT and Vodafone deal

*M.V. Benjamin Cocaine saga

* Sales of state lands

* Presidential award (then referred to as 50 cents)

This year 2012, there will be runoff and ruling NDC Party is likely to lose the elections based on the following.

i. change of candidate: NDC Candidate Prof. Mills (dead) changed for J.D. Mahama and since President Mills’ Name is not going to be on the ballot, Ghanaians as usual will not vote for the new face on the ballot but expected to vote for Nana Akuffo Addo who had contested with the late President Mills and had his Name and face on the 2008 ballot papers. You will agree with me that Nana Addo has been campaigning vigorously since 2010 and is now very popular

ii. Division in the party: disunity in the party, Nana Konadu Agyeman Rawlings and her followers were not happy with the elections held in Sunyani and have formed New political Party, the NDP.

iii. Conduct of appointees: factionalism, cronyism and total neglect of party ideology, vision, social justice, principles of probity and accountability. Some MPs. Ministers, MCEs and party executives have not learnt any lesson at all. They are power drunk, corrupt, liars, arrogant and behave as if the world belongs to them.

iv. Constituency primaries; Primaries conducted were not free and fair, most of the candidates were imposed on the constituents because of money but not ability to deliver.

Campaign message; People are demanding to know meaning of ‘Ede bee keke’’ whiles NPP message of free SHS has gone down well with the people.

v. other issues: other issues that are going to affect NDC in this year’s elections are;

*Wayome case

*CP judgement debt

*Carl Wilson and Alex Segbefia’s (Harbour cars)

*Foot soldiers’ concerns not addressed

*Asiedu Nketia’s block factory and his utterances

*STX housing project.

*One time NHIS payment

Vote percentage reduction: elections in Ghana over the years have shown Percentage reduction in the votes of ruling party during second term.

• In 1992, NDC (J. J. Rawlings) had 58.4% to beat Prof. Adu Boahen

• In 1996, NDC (J. J. Rawlings) had 57.4% to beat NPP (New candidate J.A. Kufuor.)

• In 2000, NPP (J. A. Kufuor ) had 56.9% to beat NDC (new candidate ,Prof J.E.A. Mills to become President after runoff.

• In 2004, NPP (J. A Kufuor) again had 52.45% to retain power but his previous percentage reduced by 4%.

• In 2008, NDC (J.E.A Mills) had 50.23% to beat NPP (new Candidate Nana Akufo Addo) after the third runoff with 50.23%.to become president.

• In 2012, NPP’s Nana Akufo Addo who had his name on the ballot paper in 2008 and has been able to market himself very well since 2010 is contesting NDC’s new candidate J.D Mahama who is going to be on the ballot for the first time, ‘Asem beba dabi’. We must expect a reduction from the ruling party’s previous votes which is likely going to send NDC back to opposition.

Paul Boateng

(Deputy Director of Research-NDP)