'73% win for Bawumia' and other predictions Ben Ephson got ‘wrong’

Pollster and Managing Editor for the Daily Dispatch Newspaper, Ben Ephson’s polling prowess has once again suffered a blow after his prediction for the New Patriotic Party (NPP) presidential primaries was way off the eventual outcome.

Prior to the presidential primaries, Ben Ephson predicted that the Vice President, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, was going to win the primaries with about 73 percent of the 208,144 delegates voting for him.

“From the work we have done, if Kennedy Agyapong gets beyond 25% then he has done well. I think that from the work we have done 2% +/-, Bawumia would get about 73 percent, Kennedy about 25 and 2 (candidates) left would share the 2%,” he said in an interview on Kofi TV.

Following the elections, Ben Ephson’s prediction was about 10 percentage points off as Dr Bawumia got about 62 percent of the votes and Kennedy Agyapong over 34 percent of the votes.

This is not the first time Ben Ephson has misfired in his prediction of political outcomes in the country.

Here are some of the wrong predictions given by Ben Ephson:

Asiedu Nketiah vrs Ofosu-Ampofor:

Ahead of the national elections of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) in 2022, Ben Ephson stated that delegates seemed satisfied with their old executives to lead them to the 2024 presidential elections.

For these reasons combined with what he described as the mood and level of voting in the NDC's Women's and Youth Organizer's election, Mr Ephson in an interview with Asaase Radio, noted that he will be surprised to see Johnson Asiedu Nketiah winning the National Chairmanship position.

“…The mood and the level of voting in the women and youth elections send a signal; how do you change a team that has done so well between 2016 and 2020? In 2016, Mahama lost the election by about one million votes. In 2020, he lost by about five hundred and fourteen thousand…and if the trend of voting in the women and youth election is an indicator, I will be very surprised if Asiedu Nketiah wins,” said Ben Ephson.

He again explained how a viral leaked audio of Asiedu Nketiah would go against him in the election and cause NDC delegates to punish him.

"...the audio of Asiedu Nketiah has done him no good. It has only put him out as somebody you will sacrifice the party’s overall benefit for his own personal and selfish gain,” he said.

Contrary to his prediction, the outgoing General Secretary of the National Democratic Congress, Johnson Asiedu Nketiah on Saturday, December 17, beat Samuel Ofosu-Ampofo in a landslide victory to emerge the National Chairman of the leading opposition party.

Mr Asiedu Nketiah nicknamed 'General Mosquito' pulled 5,569 votes against the outgoing National Chairman, Ofosu-Ampofo who came in second with 2,892 votes.

Justin Kodua vs John Boadu:

Ben Ephson tipped incumbent John Boadu to remain the New Patriotic Party’s National General Secretary in the party's internal election which was held in 2022.

In an interactive chat with Kessben FM’s Kwame Appiah Kubi, the pollster noted that the incumbent, John Boadu is likely to get 35% of the votes cast with the rest of the contestants vying for the General Secretary position bagging a total of 65% of all put together.

He even said that whoever would contest John Boadu for the General Secretary position of the party in the upcoming elections would be engaging in an exercise in futility and would be wasting his or her money.

“John Boadu as Acting General Secretary worked very hard to bring the party from opposition to power, so what will be the message of whoever is going to contest him? Is the person going to tell the delegates not to vote for John Boadu because he brought the party to power.

“Anyone who contests John Boadu with the view to beat him will be deceiving himself. One can only contest John Boadu this year to make a showing with the candidate having his name registered in the minds of electorates to better his chances in future elections,” he is quoted to have said in an interview with Kasapa FM.

John Boadu, Justin Frimpong Kodua, Iddrisu Musah, Frederick Opare Ansah, Charles Bissue and Ramseyer Ahmed Prempeh were the contestants for the National General Secretary’s position. Justin Frimpong Kodua won.

Chairman Wontumi vs COKA:

About a week before the Ashanti Regional NPP elections started, the pollster, Ben Ephson predicted that the incumbent Chairman of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) within the Ashanti Region, Bernard Antwi Boasiako (Chairman Wontumi), would lose to his contender Chairman Odeneho Kwaku Appiah (COKA).

Justifying his prediction, the pollster mentioned that Wontumi has fractured the Ashanti region and is unable to unite all factions.

“I think Wontumi will lose. After the first term, things were not going well within the party. We are doing some work there because I am writing a book, my 7th book on elections, part of it is towards the NPP’s flagbearership.

“The party being thrown out of rented premises was the last straw, they felt very embarrassed. The NDC in the Ashanti region has been teasing them that Wontumi says he has so many thousands of cedis and you have not been able to even build. I will be very surprised if Wontumi wins,” 3news quoted Ben Ephson.

But at the end of the election, Chairman Wontumi won.

Eduah vs Nana B

Ahead of the 2018 National Delegates Conference of NPP in Koforidua, Eastern Region, Ben Ephson predicted that Henry Nana Boakye (Nana B) may not have a chance against his main contender, Dominic Eduah, as a result of the party’s decision not to expand the electoral college.

“He’s a likeable aspirant and has massive appeal on social media and all that but I tell you the effect of the electoral college will hit him hard. He’ll be disfavoured by the NPP’s decision not to open up the electoral college,” he told Kasapa 102.5 FM.

But Nana B defied Ephson’s predictions and scaled up his votes from the delegates to emerge as the NPP’s National Youth Organizer.

He polled 423 votes to beat his contenders Dominic Kwesi Edua, Kamal Deen and Appiah Dansah who polled 243 votes, 102 votes and 1 vote respectively at the party’s 26th Annual Delegates Conference held in Koforidua in the Eastern Region on Saturday July 7, 2018.

Ningo-Prampram

Ben Ephson stated that he would be surprised to see Sam George get the nod to represent the NDC at Ningo Prampram for the 2020 general election.

According to Mr. Ephson, he believed the feud between Sam George and his predecessor ET Mensah would influence the outcome of the polls but that turned out to be false although it was very close.

“Things have built up and it is very difficult for him. Last time he was an underdog, this time if Sam George wins, I will be surprised.

“He’s done very well but this time the odds are against him. ET, love him or hate him, is a factor in Ningo Prampram,” he commented.

But his prediction failed once again.

BAI/NOQ



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