NPP Race: Bawumia leads, Agyapong gains momentum in latest survey

A recent survey by Global Info Analytics provides significant insights into the presidential race as the New Patriotic Party (NPP) primaries draw nearer.

According to the survey, Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia has emerged as the front-runner, but the Member of Parliament for Assin Central, Kennedy Agyapong, has made significant gains in support.

The survey carried out with 4,311 NPP delegates from all 275 constituencies between October 2nd and 11th, reveals that Dr. Bawumia leads the race with 43.5% support. In a surprising twist, Kennedy Agyapong has managed to rally substantial support, securing 23.5% of delegates’ backing in the last few months.

While Dr. Bawumia remains the candidate to beat, the rising popularity of Kennedy Agyapong suggests that the race may be more closely contested than initially anticipated. Notably, 18.3% of delegates remain undecided, indicating that the outcome may hinge on a fierce campaign effort.

In Dr. Bawumia’s stronghold in the Northern Region, he dominates with over 70% support. However, in Central, Western, and Volta regions, Ken is giving Dr. Bawumia a run for his money, with both candidates running neck and neck.

The contest in critical swing regions such as Greater Accra will play a pivotal role in determining the ultimate victor. Bawumia currently leads with 37% support in Accra, compared to Agyapong’s 13%. However, with 31% of delegates still undecided, the race in Greater Accra remains wide open.

In the first round of the NPP’s primaries, known as the Super Delegates Conference, Dr. Bawumia took a commanding lead with 629 votes, representing a formidable 68.15% of the votes. Kennedy Agyapong followed closely with 132 votes, constituting 14.30%.

As we approach the November primaries, both frontrunners are set to embark on a final quest to rally votes, aiming to sway undecided delegates and fortify their support bases. Party members are now anticipating an electrifying and highly competitive showdown between these two prominent figures.

Whichever candidate prevails will face the daunting challenge of leading the NPP to victory in the 2024 elections, as they contend with a resurgent National Democratic Congress (NDC). The political landscape in Ghana is sure to be enlivened by the upcoming NPP primaries and the ensuing race towards the 2024 general elections.

Key Highlights from the Poll:

In the NPP presidential primaries, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia leads with 43.5% support among delegates, followed by Kennedy Agyapong at 23.5%. This indicates that Bawumia is the front-runner, but Agyapong has garnered significant support as well.

A substantial 18.3% of delegates are still undecided, signifying that the race is not entirely settled. The potential for intensive campaigning to sway these undecided delegates remains significant.

Bawumia enjoys strong support in the northern regions, with over 70% backing in many areas. Agyapong, on the other hand, is showing strength in the central, western, and Volta regions.

Bawumia’s support has seen a noteworthy increase from 34.8% in June to 43.5% presently, while Agyapong’s support has grown from 12.5% to 23.5% over the same period.

In a hypothetical runoff between Bawumia and Agyapong, Bawumia leads by 43% to 25%, with many delegates still undecided.

If undecided delegates break heavily for Agyapong, the race is likely to tighten significantly, but Bawumia still leads in most projections.

Bawumia garners more support among male delegates compared to their female counterparts. Additionally, he performs better among delegates with higher levels of education.

The poll predicts that Bawumia would secure 65.3% of the national delegates’ vote compared to 34.2% for Agyapong if undecided delegates voted in the same proportions. However, the race is expected to be much closer and hotly contested.