IMF bailout unlikely – Spio’s son

DaMina, an independent frontier markets risk advisory, research and consulting firm, has made mind-blowing predictions for 2015 and said the Ghana-IMF bailout agreement is unlikely to happen during the year.

According to DaMina,headed by Sebastian Spio-Garbrah, son of Ekwow Spio-Garbrah, Minister of Trade and Industry, the much touted IMF bailout might not be possible anytime soon because the parties are unable to agree on a comprehensive reform programme.

“Unable to agree on a comprehensive reform programme, fearing the reaction of labour unions to stiff IMF demands for large public sector wage and headcount cuts ahead of the critical 2016 elections, amidst squabbling between the leader of the government negotiating team and the finance ministry, Ghana’s hopes for an early 2015 January IMF deal is unlikely.”

The firm indicated in a report “A breakdown in the IMF negotiations may see the president firing the Finance Minister and possibly the central bank governor.”

In the 2015 forecast for Africa, DaMina predicted a defeat for Nigeria’s President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan in the February crucial presidential election.

“Gen (Rtd) Mohammad Buhari to defeat President Goodluck Jonathan in surprise upset: Capitalizing on widespread middle class discontent with President Goodluck Jonathan’s epochal failure to defeat the terror group, Boko Haram, and rescue the 200 kidnapped Chibok school girls, and facing increasing defections from the ruling party led by his former mentor, former President Olusegun Obasanjo, who has slammed Jonathan for incompetence and covering up corruption, the 72-year old stern former military head of state and anti-corruption fighter, General Mohammad Buhari, is poised to defeat Jonathan in a surprise upset at the February 2015 general elections.”

According to the report, Gen. Buhari is expected to “marshal strong support from the Muslim north and the western Yoruba ethnic groups as well as from Lagos,” adding, “Buhari’s running mate is an anti-corruption lawyer, who doubles as a charismatic pastor at one of Nigeria’s largest churches. Jonathan’s re-election while drawing support from the south-south and south-east, will nationally fall short arithmetically.”

The report said Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe “still faces threat of the ‘Bourguiba treatment,’ despite elevating trusted aide to the position of vice president.

“Despite the fanfare and histrionics around the late 2014 firing of Vice President Joyce Mujuru by President Mugabe, and the placement of longtime hardliner security apparatchik Emmerson Mnangagwa as Mugabe’s number 2, the ailing 90-year-old Mugabe still faces the real prospect of being shunted aside in a Habib Bourguiba style.

“In 1987 longtime Tunisian leader and father of the nation, Habib Bourguiba, then, 84 years, was removed from office on grounds of medical incompetence by his chosen heir, Abidine Ben Ali, who was later himself in 2011 chased out of power by the Arab Spring. Mugabe faces a similar fate in 2015.”

DaMina predicted the re-ignition of deadly Ebola outbreak that has killed thousands of people particularly in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea.

“Despite the successful containment of the Ebola outbreak in Liberia and Guinea, the disease has yet to be fully contained in Sierra Leone. Moreover, the underlying conditions relating to poor health infrastructure and personnel in West Africa which allowed the virus to spread wildly, have yet to be comprehensively tackled. It is therefore very likely that in 2015, Ebola will again re-emerge and possibly spread geographically to other hitherto non-infected countries in West Africa.”

The report said Tanzania opposition alliance are likely to take power in historic shift saying, “Tanzania’s main opposition party alliance headed by the Chadema party, will rout the longtime ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party which has been in power since independence in 1961 in the scheduled October 2015 polls. CCM faces accusations of widespread corruption, incompetence and electoral complacency.”

It further said Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood are likely to turn jihadist saying, “Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, which after decades of patiently waiting to gain power peacefully through the ballot box lost power in a Western acquiesced military coup, will in 2015 transform its suppressed underground structures into militant armed cells to fight the regime of Field Marshal Al Sisi.”

DaMina also predicted an ‘easy’ re-election of Ivory Coast’s President Alassane Ouattara, “if his health holds up” adding, “however, his final term rather than focusing attention on his bold economic reform agenda, will degenerate into intraparty and cross-party squabbles over his succession.”