What Fitch said about Ghana's economy amidst Israel-Iran conflict

Ratings agency, Fitch Solutions, has said that despite the severe economic consequences many countries are facing from the Israel–Iran war, Ghana’s economy remains resilient against external shocks.

The agency attributes this to strong export-related foreign exchange inflows and elevated gold prices.

Although global gold prices have fallen 14% since late February 2026, driven by tighter monetary policy and a stronger dollar, the spot price remains historically high.

Fitch projects gold will average US$4,600 per ounce this year, the highest annual average on record and 33.7% above the 2025 average of US$3,442 per ounce.

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Fitch noted that Ghana’s new gold royalty regime, alongside prior fiscal consolidation, will help contain fiscal pressures.

“We believe that Ghana’s economy will remain relatively insulated from the fallout of the US–Iran conflict as it benefits from elevated gold prices. Robust export-related forex inflows and Ghana’s broadly neutral net oil trade position will limit pressure on the external account and the cedi, while prior fiscal consolidation and the new gold royalty regime will keep fiscal strains contained,” the firm said.

Ghana is expected to benefit from substantial dollar inflows in the coming months, supported by a projected 7.1% increase in gold output, particularly from the Bibiani, Chirano, and Namdini mines.

Fitch also forecasts gold export receipts will rise 12.9% to US$23.7 billion. This is equivalent to 1.5% of GDP, well above the 2010–2024 average of 0.9%.

SA