Cocoa prices climb as supply concerns support market

Global cocoa prices extended their gains on Wednesday as supply concerns in West Africa and signs of improving demand continued to support the market despite expectations of weaker cocoa processing in some regions.

According to a market analysis by Barchart.com as at Wednesday July 15, 2026, it reveals that in September New York cocoa futures rose by 77 points (1.33%), while September London cocoa futures gained 34 points (0.79%), with prices consolidating after reaching multi-month highs last week.

"Cocoa prices settled higher on Wednesday as they consolidated below last week's significant highs," the market analysis noted.

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The report attributed the latest price gains largely to heavy rainfall in the world's two biggest cocoa-producing countries, Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire, where flooding has disrupted access to farms and ports, raising concerns about global cocoa supplies.

According to the analysis, excessive rainfall is also increasing the risk of brown rot and black pod diseases, which could reduce cocoa yields and affect the upcoming harvest.

"Heavy rains in Ivory Coast and Ghana have flooded roads, cutting off farmers' access to farms and ports and threatening global supplies," it stated.

Market participants are also awaiting second-quarter cocoa grinding data from Asia, Europe and North America, which are expected to provide fresh indications of global cocoa demand.

The report forecasts that cocoa processing in Europe could decline by 1.5% year-on-year, while North American grindings are expected to fall by 1%. In contrast, Asian cocoa grindings are projected to increase by 9%, building on the recovery recorded during the first quarter.

However, signs of improving demand have also supported prices after Barry Callebaut, the world's largest cocoa processor, reported a 5.7% increase in third-quarter sales, marking its first sales growth in more than two years.

Therefor, weather conditions remain a major source of uncertainty for the global cocoa market. Barchart noted that forecasts of a strong El Niño weather pattern could result in hotter and drier conditions across West Africa, reducing soil moisture and putting additional pressure on cocoa production during the next growing season.

Early assessments of Côte d'Ivoire's 2026/27 crop also point to below-average pod development, with production currently estimated at 1.8 million metric tonnes, about 18% lower than the previous season.

"Early crop assessments show poor pod development, signalling a weak outlook for the main cocoa harvest beginning in September," the analysis indicated.

Despite the bullish outlook, the report highlighted several factors that could limit further price increases. ICE-monitored cocoa inventories have climbed to a two-year high of more than 3.2 million bags, while cocoa arrivals at ports in Côte d'Ivoire have reached 2.09 million metric tonnes, representing a 21% increase compared with the same period last season.

The report also cited stronger cocoa exports from Nigeria and continued expectations of a global cocoa surplus in the 2025/26 and 2026/27 seasons as factors weighing on prices.

ANAS/SA

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