Ghana's cocoa production projected to fall by 13% in 2026/27 crop season

Ghana’s cocoa production is expected to fall by 13% to 650,000 metric tonnes (MT) in the 2026/27 season, raising concerns about cocoa supply and supporting higher prices.

The latest forecast compares with the 750,000 MT produced in the 2025/26 season and is based on a field survey of cocoa pods.

The expected decline is linked to several challenges, including ageing cocoa farms, swollen shoot disease and the possible impact of the El Niño weather pattern, which could bring hotter and drier conditions to parts of West Africa.

The latest estimate is, however, higher than an earlier forecast by the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD), which projected production could fall to between 450,000 MT and 550,000 MT in the 2026/27 season.

Ghana recorded a strong harvest in the 2025/26 season, producing about 750,000 MT, up 25.6% from the 597,000 MT recorded in the 2024/25 season.

The expected fall in Ghana’s production is supporting cocoa prices, especially as similar concerns are emerging in neighbouring Côte d’Ivoire, which is the world’s largest cocoa producer.

Côte d’Ivoire cocoa outlook

Early assessments of Côte d’Ivoire’s 2026/27 cocoa crop have also raised concerns about production.

Surveys have found fewer young cocoa pods than expected, while pod development has also been poor. This could affect the country’s main cocoa crop, which begins in September 2026.

Côte d’Ivoire’s production is currently estimated at about 1.8 million MT, down 18% from the estimated 2.2 million MT for the 2025/26 season.

This comes despite strong cocoa supplies from the country during the current season. Farmers shipped about 2.11 million MT of cocoa to ports between October 1, 2025 and August 2, 2026, up 20% from the same period a year earlier.

El Niño raises concerns

Weather conditions are another major concern for cocoa farmers in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire.

The expected El Niño pattern could bring hotter and drier weather, reducing moisture in the soil and putting pressure on cocoa trees.

The weather risks have led analysts to lower their forecasts for the global cocoa surplus in the 2026/27 season.

StoneX has reduced its forecast for the global cocoa surplus to 25,000 MT, from an earlier estimate of 149,000 MT.

Transgraph Consulting also expects the surplus to fall to about 80,000 MT, from 415,000 MT in the 2025/26 season.

Cocoa demand remains mixed

Despite concerns about supply, demand for cocoa beans remains mixed.

European cocoa processing fell by 4.6% year-on-year in the second quarter to 316,366 MT. However, North American processing increased by 7.7% to 109,659 MT.

Asian cocoa processing also rose by 25% to 224,646 MT.

Meanwhile, rising cocoa stocks could limit further price increases. ICE cocoa inventories reached a two-year high of 3,384,965 bags on August 5.

Overall, lower production forecasts for Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, combined with possible weather problems, are raising expectations that global cocoa supplies could become tighter in the coming season.

With additional files from Bloomberg and barchart.com

MA