Zero tariffs with China could become zero exports without industrial capacity - AGC

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• Concerned Citizen Tokyo 4 hours ago

  This commentary highlights a critical but often overlooked truth in Africa’s external trade relationships: preferential access alone does not create prosperity. Zero tariffs are an opportunity, not an outcome. Without domes ...
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  This commentary highlights a critical but often overlooked truth in Africa’s external trade relationships: preferential access alone does not create prosperity. Zero tariffs are an opportunity, not an outcome. Without domestic industrial capacity, standards compliance, and efficient logistics, trade liberalisation risks becoming symbolic rather than transformative.
  
  Africa’s historical dependence on raw material exports has consistently produced limited value capture, volatile revenues, and weak job creation. China’s own development path underscores this reality—industrialisation, value addition, and export competitiveness preceded sustained growth. Expecting a different outcome without similar structural foundations would be unrealistic.
  
  The emphasis on manufacturing, standards, logistics, cold-chain infrastructure, and export finance is therefore well placed. These are not technical details but binding constraints. In their absence, tariff-free access can even worsen trade imbalances by increasing imports faster than exports, reinforcing dependency rather than reducing it.
  
  Equally important is the call for regional coordination under AfCFTA. Fragmented national strategies dilute scale advantages, discourage investment, and undermine competitiveness. Africa’s market size is its strongest asset, but only if regulatory alignment, cross-border infrastructure, and institutional credibility are strengthened.
  
  The warning that “zero tariffs could become zero exports” should be taken seriously. Trade regimes reward preparedness, not goodwill. External partners can support, but they cannot substitute for domestic governance, policy coherence, and execution capacity.
  
  Ultimately, the shift proposed—from projects to productivity, from infrastructure to industrial capacity, and from aid to competitiveness—reflects a maturation of the Africa–China economic conversation. The challenge now is not vision, but implementation. Without decisive action, preferential access will remain an unfulfilled promise rather than a catalyst for structural transformation.

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• Zach 17 minutes ago

  China doesnt need anything from africa except raw materials they are the worlds biggest factory on par with even developed countries in manufacturing so this 0% tarrif appears to be a WIN-win with chinas win in capitals

  China doesnt need anything from africa except raw materials they are the worlds biggest factory on par with even developed countries in manufacturing so this 0% tarrif appears to be a WIN-win with chinas win in capitals

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